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周五A股和港股縮量下跌。上周（下同）上證指數(shù)、創(chuàng)業(yè)板指和科創(chuàng)50分別下跌0.97%、2.42%和2.19%。申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中，11個(gè)行業(yè)上漲，17個(gè)行業(yè)下跌。其中鋼鐵、綜合和采掘行業(yè)漲幅領(lǐng)先，休閑服務(wù)、食品飲料和電氣設(shè)備跌幅領(lǐng)先，這些行業(yè)都是抱團(tuán)股集中的行業(yè)。恒生指數(shù)、國(guó)企指數(shù)和科技指數(shù)分別下跌0.83%、2.14%和3.08%。恒生綜合行業(yè)指數(shù)中5個(gè)行業(yè)上漲，7個(gè)行業(yè)下跌。其中原材料、綜合和工業(yè)行業(yè)領(lǐng)漲，科技、能源和醫(yī)療保健行業(yè)領(lǐng)跌。北上資金凈流出53.3億人民幣，較前一交易降低46%。南下資金凈流入70.4億港幣，連續(xù)第二周凈流入。

中美3月份通脹抬升。我國(guó)3月消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)（CPI）由上月同比下降0.2%轉(zhuǎn)為上漲0.4%。其中，豬肉價(jià)格下降18.4%，降幅擴(kuò)大3.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。非食品中，受汽油、柴油價(jià)格上漲影響，工業(yè)消費(fèi)品價(jià)格上漲1.0%，為近一年來同比首次上漲。我國(guó)3月生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)（PPI）同比上漲4.4%，超市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。和上年同期相比，3月PPI漲幅比上月擴(kuò)大2.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從環(huán)比看，受國(guó)際大宗商品價(jià)格上漲等因素影響，PPI上漲1.6%，漲幅比上月擴(kuò)大0.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。美國(guó)勞工部發(fā)布數(shù)據(jù)顯示，經(jīng)季節(jié)性因素調(diào)整，美國(guó)3月份消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)環(huán)比下降0.4%，預(yù)期下降0.3%，2月份上漲0.1%；未經(jīng)季節(jié)性因素調(diào)整，同比上漲1.5%，預(yù)期上漲1.6%，2月份上漲2.3%?？鄢称泛湍茉矗绹?guó)3月份核心CPI環(huán)比下降0.1%，預(yù)期上漲0.1%，2月份上漲0.2%；同比上漲2.1%，預(yù)期上漲2.3%，2月份上漲2.4%。美國(guó)3月PPI同比增長(zhǎng)4.2%，超市場(chǎng)預(yù)期的3.8%，大超前值2.8%，連續(xù)第11個(gè)月上升，并創(chuàng)下2011年以來新高。

中美通脹未來走勢(shì)判斷。從3月份的數(shù)據(jù)看，中美兩國(guó)的CPI上漲壓力不大，但PPI上漲壓力較大。這與我們?cè)?021年1月發(fā)表在楓瑞視點(diǎn)微信公眾號(hào)的2021年A股投資展望中預(yù)測(cè)的中美兩國(guó)CPI和PPI走勢(shì)基本一致。我國(guó)今年前三季度在豬肉價(jià)格下跌的帶動(dòng)下，CPI不會(huì)有明顯上漲。但美國(guó)因去年4、5月份的CPI為低基數(shù)，當(dāng)月同比增速分別為0.3%和0.1%。因此，今年4、5月美國(guó)CPI有可能會(huì)超過2%。而PPI美國(guó)歷史上看通常要在兩年左右達(dá)到高點(diǎn)（表一）。我國(guó)今年P(guān)PI一般12個(gè)月達(dá)到頂點(diǎn)（表二），今年2季度有可能見到。

表一：我國(guó)PPI上行周期

數(shù)據(jù)來源：WIND，北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司

表二：美國(guó)PPI上行周期數(shù)據(jù)來源：WIND，北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司

數(shù)據(jù)來源：WIND，北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司

上周五美股大漲。經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇股引領(lǐng)上漲，恐慌指數(shù)下降到17。

Last Friday both A-share and HK stocks fell with contracted volume. Last week (the same below) major indexes in both A-share and HK market fell. In A-share 11 out of 28 sectors rose. Food and beverage, leisure service and electric equipment sector, which were group-holding stocks mainly from, fell the most. In HK market 5 out of 12 Hang Seng sectors rose with raw material, conglomerate and industrial sector rising the most. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 5.33 billion,down 46% from the previous week. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$7.04 billion,the second week of net inflow in a row.   

Both China and the US saw inflation pick up in March. China Consumer Price Index(CPI) in March rose to 0.4% year-over-year (yoy) versus fell 0.2% yoy in Feb. Porkprices fell 18.5% yoy in March compared with 13.2% in February. Industrial consumer goods' prices rose 1% yoy in March, the first time to rise yoy in one year due to rising prices of gasoline and diesel oil. China Producer Price Index (PPI) in March rose 4.4% yoy versus 1.7% in Feb, mainly due to the rising prices of commodities. The US CPI in March fell 0.4% month-on-month (mom) and rose 1.5%yoy. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, fell 0.1% mom and rose 2.1% yoy.The US PPI in March rose 4.2% yoy versus 2.7% yoy in February. The US March PPI growth rate yoy has reached the highest level since 2011. The USPPI hasincreased yoy for eleven months in a row. The trends of CPI and PPI in both China and the US are basically in line with what we predicted in “Investment outlook for A-share in 2021”. For both China and the US inflation in consumer would not be a major concern in 2021, although the US will see CPI growth rate rise above 2% yoy in April and May due to low base.  But producer inflation would continue to rise in both countries.

Both Dow and SP500 reached record high last Friday. Recovery stocks led the rally. VIX Index fell to 17 from above 20.

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