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崩盤季。近期因市場(chǎng)調(diào)整，年前認(rèn)購(gòu)基金的投資者遭受不同程度的損失，使基金的發(fā)行面臨困難。不時(shí)有基金募集失敗的消息見(jiàn)諸媒體。去年抱團(tuán)股的擊鼓傳花游戲難以為繼，導(dǎo)致抱團(tuán)股一個(gè)接一個(gè)上演崩盤。崩盤的另外一個(gè)原因就是個(gè)股估值較高，透支了未來(lái)幾年的業(yè)績(jī)。而抱團(tuán)股閃崩的催化劑主要來(lái)自于業(yè)績(jī)低于預(yù)期。這是高估值造成的必然結(jié)果。沒(méi)有企業(yè)能夠持續(xù)保持高速增長(zhǎng)，50-100%的年業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊倥紶柨梢砸?jiàn)到，但是長(zhǎng)期保持是不可能的。所以，股價(jià)在高位時(shí)，很可能是市場(chǎng)將短期當(dāng)成長(zhǎng)期，將偶然當(dāng)成必然，股價(jià)勢(shì)必面臨調(diào)整。周二盡管A股市場(chǎng)羸弱，但仍有9個(gè)行業(yè)上漲，其中農(nóng)林牧漁、食品飲料和醫(yī)藥生物領(lǐng)漲，而休閑服務(wù)、鋼鐵和采掘領(lǐng)跌。

你的投資期限有多長(zhǎng)？抱團(tuán)股以及上世紀(jì)70年代美國(guó)的漂亮50均被認(rèn)為可以持有一輩子的股票。漂亮50中的一些股票持有到今天，確實(shí)是幾十倍股。但是一個(gè)投資人能夠投資的年限有多長(zhǎng)呢？股票投資者能做到像巴菲特持股幾十年的并不多見(jiàn)。但產(chǎn)業(yè)投資人包括一級(jí)市場(chǎng)投資人和企業(yè)可以持有很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間，他們給予的估值也都比較高。一個(gè)例子是2006年百威以58.86億人民幣收購(gòu)福建雪津啤酒。雪津啤酒的凈資產(chǎn)為5億人民幣，估值為12倍的市凈率，對(duì)照某著名白酒公司當(dāng)前16倍市凈率。啤酒公司是重資產(chǎn)行業(yè)，用每百升企業(yè)價(jià)值（EV/hl）來(lái)衡量更合理。百威收購(gòu)雪津的價(jià)格相當(dāng)于100美金EV/hl，而當(dāng)時(shí)中國(guó)啤酒企業(yè)估值約25美金EV/hl。百威收購(gòu)雪津后，雪津的產(chǎn)能不斷擴(kuò)大，從2006年的75萬(wàn)噸擴(kuò)張到2019年的200萬(wàn)噸，銷售收入達(dá)到50億元。百威并購(gòu)雪津的價(jià)格很高。但隨著企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大，經(jīng)營(yíng)效益提高，十多年后看百威出的價(jià)格并不高。A股市場(chǎng)上也有一些來(lái)自一級(jí)市場(chǎng)的基金。他們采用產(chǎn)業(yè)的視角進(jìn)行投資，不看重當(dāng)前的估值。只要行業(yè)沒(méi)有重大變化，十多年后看他們所投資的企業(yè)最終還是能夠帶來(lái)回報(bào)。如果你也可以投入這么長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間，高位買入好公司的股票是沒(méi)問(wèn)題的。最終好企業(yè)會(huì)提供好的回報(bào)。

周二美股科技股大漲。美國(guó)3月消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)環(huán)比上漲0.6%，同比上漲2.6%，均超市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。美國(guó)FDA因罕見(jiàn)血栓癥狀宣布暫停接種強(qiáng)生公司疫苗。周三摩根大通、高盛和富國(guó)銀行將會(huì)發(fā)布2020年4季報(bào)。

Group-holding stocks tumbled one after another. With these group-holding stocks continuous falling those investors who bought funds holding these stocks suffered losses. This has made it difficult to issue new funds. Hence, the game to pass the parcel is over. That’s why group-holding stocks fell. Of course,another reason is due to that their valuation is way too high even after falling a lot from the high point. While the overall market was quite weak on Tuesday, there were still 9 sectors rising amid 28 in A-share. They were farming and fishery, food and beverage and bio-medicine. Leisure service, iron and steel and mining fell the most. The catalyst to the tumble of group-holding stocks is mainly from earnings disappointment.This is actually the fate of high-valued stocks. No companies can maintain earnings growth rate as high as 50-100% per annum. High growth happens occasionally not frequently. If investors extrapolate what happens in the long term based on the situation in the short term, then stocks would crash sooner or later.

How long can you invest in the stock market? In stock market it is not common for investors to invest for up to more than 10 years. But for industry and investors from the primary market their investment horizon is usually that long,if not longer. In 2006 InBev acquired Xuejin Brewery for RMB 5.9 billion, whichwas 12x price-to-book ratio (PB). As a contrast, nowadays a famous Chinese liquor company is valued at 16x PB. By 2019 Xuejin Brewery has almost tripled its production capacity and its overall sales revenue was RMB 5 billion. So given a long period of time investment in a good company is rewarding despite high valuation at the time of purchase. The question is whether you can hold a stock for that long.

The US tech stocks rallied. The US March CPI grew 0.6% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, higher than expected. Recovery stocks fell as FDA called for a pause of inoculation of J&J vaccine.

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