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周三A股和港股均縮量上漲。A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中25個(gè)上漲，其中休閑服務(wù)、電氣設(shè)備和有色金屬領(lǐng)漲，而下跌的行業(yè)為銀行、農(nóng)林牧漁和公用事業(yè)。成交量創(chuàng)出年初以來的新低，兩市成交僅為6500億人民幣。港股恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)全部上漲，其中原材料、醫(yī)療保健和科技行業(yè)領(lǐng)漲。北上和南下資金均為凈流入。北上凈流入57.3億人民幣，較周二84.66億減少32.3%。南下資金凈流入13億港幣，較周二略增。

行情會(huì)是一日游嗎？A股和港股均在連續(xù)下跌三天后迎來縮量反彈。很多投資者關(guān)心這種行情是否具有持續(xù)性。成交縮量表明大量資金采取觀望態(tài)度，也就是對(duì)股市心存疑慮。我們傾向于認(rèn)為A股市場(chǎng)整體行情的可能性不大，主要原因是滬深300的估值太高，當(dāng)前靜態(tài)市盈率為14.9倍，處于歷史90%的分位。滬深300的權(quán)重主要是抱團(tuán)股。分行業(yè)看，在A股28個(gè)行業(yè)中，當(dāng)前靜態(tài)市盈率在40倍以上的一共有8個(gè)行業(yè)，其中休閑服務(wù)、計(jì)算機(jī)和國(guó)防軍工的靜態(tài)市盈率最高，分別為180、60.6和60.6倍。而銀行、房地產(chǎn)和建筑裝飾的靜態(tài)市盈率是所有行業(yè)中最低的，分別為7.5、8.4和9.3倍。A股年初至今10個(gè)板塊上漲，其中銀行和建筑裝飾分別上漲7%和4%，分別列漲幅的第三和第五位。在下跌的18個(gè)行業(yè)中，高估值的國(guó)防軍工和計(jì)算機(jī)跌幅較大，休閑服務(wù)行業(yè)跌幅較小。港股估值較低。以市凈率看，港股的綜合（即香港本地股）、能源和電訊的靜態(tài)市盈率分別為0.4、0.5和0.7倍。港股年初以來12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中9個(gè)上漲，3個(gè)下跌。其中漲幅較好的行業(yè)均有低估值支撐，譬如漲幅前三的綜合、能源和原材料。而僅有的三個(gè)下跌行業(yè)分別為必需消費(fèi)、科技和醫(yī)療保健，他們都對(duì)應(yīng)高估值。我們認(rèn)為無論港股還是A股未來還將延續(xù)低估值公司上漲、而高估值公司回落的格局。所以，今年看市場(chǎng)整體走勢(shì)并無太大意義。2021年將更注重自下而上選股，只要估值低、業(yè)績(jī)好，無論在A股還是港股都有表現(xiàn)的機(jī)會(huì)。

美股從高位滑落。科技股大跌，拖累標(biāo)普500和納指，因經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，通脹上漲。道指上漲，周三高盛、摩根大通等銀行公布的業(yè)績(jī)皆超預(yù)期，市場(chǎng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇前景樂觀。鮑威爾講話指出今年美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不太可能加息。周四將要公布3月零售數(shù)據(jù)，預(yù)期環(huán)比2月增長(zhǎng)6%，因1400美金支票已發(fā)放到個(gè)人。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose on Wednesday.  25 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose with leisure service, electric equipment and non-ferrous metal rising the most.Bank, farming and fishery and utilities fell the most. Trading volume in both Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange was RMB650 billion, the lowest level year-to-date. In HK market, all of the 12 sectors rose with raw material, tech and healthcare sector rising the most. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 5.73 billion, 33% lower than the net inflow on Tuesday. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$1.3 billion, slightly higher than the net inflow on Tuesday. 

Will the stock market continue to rise? Both A-share and HK stocks rose after falling for three days in a row. The low trading volume shows thatmany investors were not participating in the rally. They might want to figureout whether the rally can continue firstly. Our view is that broad market rally might not continue as major indexes are valued at a high level. Take the example of CS 300  Index, it is valued at 14.8x trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTM PE). This puts it at 90% percentile in history. Hence, there is just small room for it to improve valuation. If we analyze A-share from sector perspective, among the 28 sectors there are 8 sectors with TTM PE above 40x. And leisure service, military defense and computer are the highest valued with TTM PE at 180x, 60x and 60x respectively.  Bank, property and construction and decoration are the lowest-valued sectors with TTM PE at 7.5x, 8.4x and 9.3x respectively. Year-to-date there are 10 sectors rising. Most of them are low-valued sectors. In HK year-to-date 9 out of 12 sectors rose in HK market. The low-valued sectors performed better and the high-valued sectors fell. We believe that this year in both A-share and HK market low-valued sectors and stocks would outperform high-valued ones. Stock-picking becomes more important this year. 

DOW rose.  Bank earnings were better than expected.

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