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周一A股放量大漲。A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中24個(gè)上漲，漲幅居前的分別為汽車、電氣設(shè)備和有色金屬，跌幅居前的行業(yè)為鋼鐵、商貿(mào)和綜合。滬深兩市成交量創(chuàng)下一個(gè)月以來的高點(diǎn)。港股恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中10個(gè)上漲，醫(yī)療保健、原材料和工業(yè)領(lǐng)漲，而科技和能源下跌。北上資金凈流入163億人民幣，為年初以來凈流入金額第二高，僅次于1月8日的206億。南下資金凈流入51億港幣，與前一交易日持平。上海車展周一開幕，汽車板塊受到提振，漲幅在A股和港股都處于領(lǐng)先位置。上海車展顯示汽車未來的發(fā)展方向?yàn)殡妱?dòng)化和智能化，產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈利潤格局將被重塑。根據(jù)券商預(yù)測(cè)，到2030年，我國汽車行業(yè)來自于售后服務(wù)和用車服務(wù)的利潤將從2017年占比17%，總計(jì)1.16萬億人民幣提升到占比34%，總計(jì)4.5萬億人民幣。汽車行業(yè)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模將從10萬億上升到20萬億。如此大的市場(chǎng)規(guī)模吸引各路公司紛紛加入造車的行列。

買給誰呢？有一個(gè)小故事說一個(gè)投資人買了幾千股股票，股價(jià)上漲之后告訴給經(jīng)紀(jì)人賣掉股票。經(jīng)紀(jì)人回答：賣給誰呢？你是唯一購買這只股票的人。老齡化社會(huì)對(duì)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的壓力從這個(gè)故事中可見端倪。美國前商務(wù)部長彼得·彼德森在其著作《灰色的黎明》中指出：前面有一座要崩塌的冰山，它被稱為全球老齡化，它可能導(dǎo)致強(qiáng)國的崩潰。發(fā)達(dá)國家解決老齡化的辦法包括全球化、開放移民等。我國也面臨人口出生率持續(xù)下降、老年人口占比持續(xù)攀升的問題。未富先老是一個(gè)無可回避的現(xiàn)實(shí)。央行最近關(guān)于人口的研究報(bào)告引起市場(chǎng)的廣泛關(guān)注，其結(jié)論就是只有提高出生率才能解決人口問題。本月底我國第七次人口普查報(bào)告將發(fā)布，市場(chǎng)預(yù)期人口政策將會(huì)有所調(diào)整。

歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)走強(qiáng)，美元走弱。高盛將歐元兌美元匯率從1.21美元兌1歐元上調(diào)到1.25，未來12個(gè)月的目標(biāo)價(jià)格為1.28。高盛同時(shí)上調(diào)了泛歐洲600指數(shù)的目標(biāo)價(jià)格，預(yù)計(jì)未來12個(gè)月該指數(shù)上漲10%，而標(biāo)普500預(yù)計(jì)只上漲6%。高盛上調(diào)歐元匯率的理由包括疫苗接種加快以及住院人數(shù)下降，預(yù)期歐元區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長因此將會(huì)加速。國際貨幣基金組織預(yù)測(cè)歐元區(qū)2022年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長3.9%，重新回到疫情前的水平。高盛認(rèn)為美元1季度走強(qiáng)只是反應(yīng)了疫苗接種比歐元區(qū)早，并不是美國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)強(qiáng)于歐元區(qū)。

美股從高位滑落。科技股領(lǐng)跌，受益經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的股票上漲。

A-share rallied with the biggest volume in a month. 24 out of 28 sectors rosewith auto, electric equipment and non-ferrous metal leading the market. And iron and steel, commerce and trade and conglomerates fell the most. In HK 10 out of 12 sectors rose with healthcare, raw material and industrial leading the market.  Tech and energy sector fell. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 16.3 billion, only lower than RMB 20.6 billion on Jan. 8th. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$5.1 billion. Shanghai Auto Exhibition opened on Monday, which triggered market sentiment towards auto sector. Auto will become more intelligent and electric vehicle will become the mainstream in the coming 10 years. The profit deriving from after-market service  and driving service will increase substantially from RMB 1.16 trillion, which was 17% of auto sector’s profit in 2017, to RMB 4.5 trillion in 2030, 34% of the sector profit. Market cap will double from current RMB10 trillion to RMB 20 trillion. Such a big market has attracted many players to join.

Who can you sell stocks to? Aging society has become a gray rhino for asset prices. Peter Peterson, the ex-Minister of Commerce in the US, pointed out in his book “Gray Dawn” that aging has become a global issue and this would cause the strong nations to crash. Developed countries have resorted to globalization and immigration to deal with this issue. China is also faced with aging issue with continuously falling birth rate and the elderly taking a bigger share of population. But China is different from the developed nations in aging issue. According to a research paper by the People’s Bank of China, developed countries with an aging population problem tend to be wealthier with a per capita GDP of at least $2,000, while China’s is half that at $1,000. The seventh population census results are to be released at the end of this month. Market expects China’s population policies to make some changes.

The US stocks fell from record high.   Tech stocks fell the most while economic recovery stocks rose. 

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