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周二A股調(diào)整。申萬(wàn)28個(gè)行業(yè)中10個(gè)上漲，漲幅居前的為綜合、農(nóng)林牧漁和鋼鐵，跌幅居前的為通信、紡織服裝和汽車。滬深兩市成交量較前一交易日略有回落。港股恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中8個(gè)上漲，非必需性消費(fèi)業(yè)、金融業(yè)和綜合領(lǐng)漲，原材料、能源和工業(yè)下跌。北上資金凈流出5億人民幣，南下資金凈流入53.9億港幣。

美股再通脹交易。上周四，美國(guó)商務(wù)部發(fā)布了3月份的零售額，季調(diào)之后達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的7.4萬(wàn)億美金。華爾街資深人士亞蒂尼認(rèn)為最近在政府發(fā)放疫情資助支票后，2.5億美國(guó)人總計(jì)有8000億美金的現(xiàn)金在賬上，足以夠他們?cè)诟鞔笊虉?chǎng)、超市掃貨。3月份的零售銷售額較一年前的4月份的最低點(diǎn)上漲了50%。3月零售額數(shù)據(jù)出臺(tái)后，亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲(chǔ)預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)1季度GDP季調(diào)之后增長(zhǎng)8.3%，之前為6%。杰富瑞證券的全球策略分析師戴仕文將2021到2022年的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)比喻成100米接力賽，接力棒從中國(guó)手中傳到美國(guó)手中，然后是英國(guó)、日本和歐洲一起拿下接力棒。由于庫(kù)存水平偏低以及供應(yīng)鏈的各種問(wèn)題，他認(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有達(dá)到頂峰。但是企業(yè)盈利增速有可能已經(jīng)到頂，一方面原材料價(jià)格上漲，另一方面拜登政府加稅，二者對(duì)企業(yè)盈利都會(huì)造成壓力。3月份美國(guó)生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比上漲4.2%，創(chuàng)下47年來(lái)最大漲幅。綜合各種因素，戴仕文建議堅(jiān)持再通脹交易，小盤股優(yōu)于大盤股，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和通脹將會(huì)使利率曲線更為陡峭，銀行和消費(fèi)金融公司將會(huì)受益，推薦受益于經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇周期性股票。

A股再通脹交易表現(xiàn)較弱。年初以來(lái)，A股申萬(wàn)28個(gè)行業(yè)中14個(gè)上漲，14個(gè)下跌。其中鋼鐵、采掘和輕工制造領(lǐng)漲，分別上漲28%、9%和8%，國(guó)防軍工、非銀金融和通信領(lǐng)跌。港股年初以來(lái)12個(gè)行業(yè)中，11個(gè)上漲，僅有必需消費(fèi)行業(yè)下跌。其中原材料、綜合和能源領(lǐng)漲，分別上漲23.4%、23.2%和19.6%。相比之下，A股與再通脹交易相關(guān)的周期性行業(yè)漲幅較小，主要原因是大資金仍然布局在所謂好賽道上。考慮到好賽道的高估值，對(duì)其的盈利預(yù)期也在高位，未來(lái)很有可能下降；其股價(jià)也面臨下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。而對(duì)周期股的盈利增速預(yù)期較低，盈利增速和股價(jià)都存在上行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

美股連續(xù)第二天下跌。奈飛新增用戶數(shù)低于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，股價(jià)大跌，帶動(dòng)納指下跌。市場(chǎng)因新冠病例數(shù)持續(xù)上升對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇產(chǎn)生質(zhì)疑。

A-share fell slightly with smaller trading volume. 10 out of 28 sectors rose with conglomerate, farming and fishery and iron and steel sector rising the most. Telecom, textile and auto sector fell the most. In HK 8 out of 12 sectors rose with discretionary consumption, financial and conglomerate rising the most. Raw material, energy and industrial fell the most. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 500 million. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$5.39 billion.

Reflation trade in the US stock market. Last Thursday the Commerce Department in the US reported that retail sales in March rose to a record seasonally adjusted US$7.4 trillion, which was 50% increase from last April. Afterthe latest stimulus checks to households, about 250 million Americans have received checks that added up to roughly US$ 800 billion in cash available for them to buy anything they want in supermarkets and department stores. After March retail sales data the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta raised 1Q2021 GDP growth rate from 6% to 8.3%. While economic growth is strong companies’ earnings might peak under the pressure of rising input costs and the likely tax rate increase by Biden administration. March producer price index rose 4.2% year-on-year, the largest gain in 47 years. Sean Darby from Jefferies recommended reflation trade including banks and cyclicals.

Reflation trade in A-share performed poorly.  Year-to-date reflation trade in A-share rose much less than in HK market. While a lot of money is still piling in the so-called“Good tracks”, these stocks’ earnings growth might miss given the high expectation. And the cyclicals that benefit from economic recovery might deliver earnings above expectation, which remains at low levels.

The US stocks fell for the second day in a row. Market worried that surging new cases of COVID-19 might stall economic recovery. 

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