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A股周一下午跳水，港股小幅下跌。A股成交量創(chuàng)下3月16日以來的新高達(dá)到9000億人民幣以上。申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中只有3個(gè)上漲，分別是采掘、有色金屬和化工。恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中只有原材料行業(yè)上漲，其余11個(gè)行業(yè)均下跌，其中必需消費(fèi)、地產(chǎn)建筑和公用事業(yè)跌幅領(lǐng)先。北上和南下資金分別凈流入32億人民幣和19.8億港幣。周一收盤后，市場(chǎng)監(jiān)管總局發(fā)消息稱將對(duì)美團(tuán)涉嫌“二選一”壟斷行為進(jìn)行調(diào)查。無論是中國還是美國的網(wǎng)絡(luò)股今年都面臨監(jiān)管壓力,從而影響他們的股價(jià)表現(xiàn)。

抱團(tuán)股為什么又跌了？A股周一下午突發(fā)跳水，抱團(tuán)股領(lǐng)跌。抱團(tuán)股面臨雙重壓力，一是估值過高壓力。盡管春節(jié)后抱團(tuán)股股價(jià)有一些調(diào)整，但其估值仍處在歷史較高水平。這波拉估值行情始于2019年初，兩年時(shí)間資金將抱團(tuán)股估值推高到了歷史較高水平。以滬深300為例，其調(diào)整前最高點(diǎn)所對(duì)應(yīng)的靜態(tài)市盈率為17.4倍，僅次于2015年股災(zāi)發(fā)生前的市場(chǎng)最高點(diǎn)所對(duì)應(yīng)的靜態(tài)市盈率18.7倍。春節(jié)后至今，抱團(tuán)股股價(jià)調(diào)整了2個(gè)月。估值雖然有所下降，目前為14.9倍，但仍處于近10年來90%的分位。羅馬不是一日建成的，估值的抬升非一日之功，消化估值的過程也將會(huì)持續(xù)比較長的時(shí)間。以時(shí)間換空間對(duì)整體股市來說是一件好事情。如果以快速殺跌的方式調(diào)整估值，則對(duì)股市的沖擊較大。二是一旦抱團(tuán)股有一定幅度的上漲，基金面臨的贖回壓力就會(huì)加大。這主要是因?yàn)檫^去兩年無論公募還是私募基金都主要投資于抱團(tuán)股。為應(yīng)對(duì)贖回壓力，在其他股票都賣出之后，只能賣抱團(tuán)股。因此，未來抱團(tuán)股的股價(jià)如果不是下跌則至多是震蕩。從剛剛發(fā)布完畢的基金一季報(bào)可以看出，抱團(tuán)股已經(jīng)有瓦解跡象?；鸺觽}順周期板塊，對(duì)抱團(tuán)股的持倉水平總體回落。年初至今A股紅利指數(shù)的漲幅為7%，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)領(lǐng)先其他風(fēng)格指數(shù)，也表明資金在向價(jià)值股轉(zhuǎn)移。上述表明，抱團(tuán)股所代表的大盤成長未來上漲空間不大，每次上漲都應(yīng)該是減倉的時(shí)機(jī)。

美股漲跌不一。標(biāo)普500中1/3的公司發(fā)布了2021年1季度業(yè)績，其中84%的公司盈利正增長。標(biāo)普和納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)創(chuàng)出歷史新高，道指回落。拜登本周將會(huì)宣布一系列對(duì)富人征稅的政策，包括提高資本利得稅至幾乎原來的兩倍。白宮方面認(rèn)為資本利得稅只會(huì)對(duì)0.3%的人口征收，因此影響不大。

A-share tumbled and HK stocks fell slightly on Monday . A-share dived on Monday afternoon. Only mining, non-ferrous metal and petrochemical sector rose out of 28 sectors rose in A-share. In HK market only raw material sector rose out of 12 sectors in HK. And consumer stable, property and utilities sector fell the most.North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB3.2 billion and HK$1.98 billion respectively. The State Administration for Market Regulation announced that it would investigate Meituan for its monopolistic business behavior of “Choosing one from two”. This year both Chinese and the US mega-tech firms are faced with supervision measures, which would dent their stocks rally.

Why group-holding stocks fell again? The dive of A-share on Monday afternoon was mainly due to the sell-off of group-holding stocks, which are faced with two challenges. Firstly, their valuation is still at hefty levels.Take the example of CS300, its trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio(TTW PE) was 17.4x, which was only second to the highest level-18.7x before market crash in 2015 over the last 10 years. Group-holding stocks began correction after the Chinese New Year. After two months’ correction CS300 is valued at 14.9x, which puts it at 90% percentile over the last 10 years. Secondly,redemption pressure rose with the group-holding stocks rising. As so many mutual funds have put their money in group-holding stocks, they have to sell them when faced with redemption pressure. Hence, group-holding stocks’ prices would at best bounce up and down if not go down sharply. 1Q2021 reports of mutual funds showed that they are moving away from group-holding stocks. They increased exposure to cyclical stocks while cut exposure to group-holding stocks. In summary, any bounce of group-holding stocks are the chances of getting out of them.

The US stocks mixed. Dow fell while SP 500 and Nasdaq hit record levels.

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