周二A股和港股均探底回升。A股申萬28個行業(yè)中7個上漲，21個下跌,漲幅居前的為醫(yī)藥生物、休閑服務和紡織服裝。恒生12個綜合行業(yè)中7個上漲，5個下跌，原材料行業(yè)繼續(xù)領漲，公用事業(yè)、能源和金融行業(yè)跌幅居前。北上和南下資金分別凈流入35億人民幣和8.3億港幣。貴州茅臺一季度凈利潤同比上升6.6%，為2015年以來的最低增速。
美團將被處罰但影響不大。摩根·斯坦利認為市場監(jiān)管總局對美團的調查并不令市場感到意外，美團之前已經完成了募資，罰款風險應是可控的。野村認為美團可能會因違反反壟斷法被國家市監(jiān)局定罪。按壟斷法規(guī)定，罰款額為上年度綜合營業(yè)額的1%-10%。如罰款是按上一年銷售額的4%(如阿里巴巴的情況)，美團將可能被罰款46億元人民幣(約7.06億美元)，相當于美團凈現(xiàn)金余額180億美元的約4%，包括最近發(fā)行股票和可換股債券籌集的100億美元，預計潛在罰款對美團的業(yè)務影響有限。該行維持美團買入評級，目標價404港元。美團股價周二早盤下跌，之后轉漲。
買入周期股并不晚。過去一個月，周期股總體跑輸市場。自去年9月份直到四月中旬，美股的價值股跑贏成長股20個百分點。但根據美國銀行，在經濟復蘇的早期階段，價值股通常跑贏成長股60個百分點。通脹和對經濟敏感的股票的表現(xiàn)通常緊密相關。對未來五年的通脹預期已經從去年9月份的1.5%上升到2.4%。成長和價值股之間的估值差異也反應股市并沒有反應經濟復蘇。成長股對價值股的估值差與危機剛開始的時候是一樣的，比2008年金融危機以來的中位數(shù)水平要高。銀行是對利率非常敏感的周期股。當經濟好轉時，對貸款的需求會增加。同時隨著經濟復蘇，利率曲線將更為陡峭，銀行的凈息差會提升。盡管美國國債收益率上升，但銀行的表現(xiàn)并沒有完全反應經濟復蘇的樂觀前景。對上游周期股而言，銅鋁等金屬價格從去年3月份的低點已經或接近翻倍。金屬類上市公司都有較大的經營杠桿，因此，他們的凈利潤增速應遠大于收入增速，后者受金屬價格的驅動。這類周期股應該還有上漲空間。
美股漲跌不一。2月份房屋價格同比上漲12%，15年來最大漲幅。
Major indexes in both A-share and HK market rose slightly on Tuesday. Trading volume was lower than on Monday in both markets. 7 out of 28 sectors rose with bio-medicine, leisure service and textile sector rising the most. In HK market 7 out of 12 sectors rose with raw material sector still rising the most. Utilities, energy and financial sector fell the most. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB3.5billion and HK$ 830 million respectively. Morgan Stanley (MS) believed that it was not out of expectation that Meituan was investigated by the State Administration for Market Regulation for monopolistic business behavior. MS thought the likely punishment to Meituan would not have big impact on its business. Nomura estimated that Meituan might be fined RMB 4.6 billion, 4% of its revenue (same as what Alibaba has been fined). Meituan has raised RMB 10 billion recently via stock and bond issuance and its net cash balance is RMB18 billion.
It’s not late to buy cyclicals. Cyclicals lagged behind the overall market in April. Cyclicals outperformed growth stocks by 20 percentage point from last September till mid-April. But they usually outperform growth stocks by 60 percentage point in early stage of economic recovery, according to Bank of America. Valuation gap between growth and value stocks is the same as the pandemic began and higher than the median levels from 2008 global financial crises till now. Banks are sensitive to economic recovery and interest rate. When economy recovers demand for loans increases. Meanwhile, banks’ net margin will expand as interest rate will rise with economy going up. Although the US treasury yields have risen two times from their lows in last August, banks’ stock performance is lagging behind. So do the metal stocks. Metal listed companies have big operating leverage, which will drive their earnings to grow much higher than metal prices.
The US stocks mixed. Home prices in February rose 12% year-on-year, the biggest gain in 15 years.
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