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上周五A股下跌，港股微跌。五一長(zhǎng)假后兩個(gè)交易日，A股的上證指數(shù)、創(chuàng)業(yè)板指和科創(chuàng)50分別下跌0.81%、5.85%和4.41%。申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中11個(gè)上漲，17個(gè)下跌。其中漲幅居前的是鋼鐵、采掘和有色金屬行業(yè)，跌幅居前的是休閑服務(wù)、醫(yī)藥生物和電子。值得注意的是茅指數(shù)在4月份連續(xù)下跌2個(gè)月后反彈7.4%，而五月兩個(gè)交易日就下跌了4.92%。很多“茅股”跌破技術(shù)均線，預(yù)示后期走勢(shì)也不容樂觀。港股上周五個(gè)交易日，恒生指數(shù)、國(guó)企指數(shù)和科技指數(shù)分別下跌0.4%、1.17%和4.31%，恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中6個(gè)上漲，6個(gè)下跌，其中能源、原材料和公用事業(yè)非漲幅居前，而科技和醫(yī)療保健跌幅居前。輝瑞CEO周日發(fā)文明確表示反對(duì)美國(guó)政府放棄疫苗專利。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)削減購(gòu)債規(guī)模對(duì)股市的影響有多大？A股市場(chǎng)投資人對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)何時(shí)收回流動(dòng)性普遍表示關(guān)注。最近一次美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)削減購(gòu)債規(guī)模發(fā)生在2014年。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在2013年12月宣布，2014年1月開始實(shí)施?；仡?013年下半年和2014年，美股基本不受購(gòu)債規(guī)?？s減的影響。而新興市場(chǎng)股市在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)開始縮減購(gòu)債規(guī)模前后表現(xiàn)疲弱，主要受到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好較低導(dǎo)致資金更青睞發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家、美元指數(shù)上漲以及資源品價(jià)格下跌的影響。從估值角度看，標(biāo)普500在2014年1月靜態(tài)市盈率為18.3倍，而當(dāng)前為33倍，對(duì)比2000年網(wǎng)絡(luò)泡沫破滅之前的靜態(tài)市盈率最高點(diǎn)為30倍。市場(chǎng)普遍認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)削減購(gòu)債規(guī)模將會(huì)導(dǎo)致美股大幅調(diào)整，從而結(jié)束美股從疫情開始后持續(xù)一年多的牛市。事實(shí)是否如此有待驗(yàn)證。上一次削減購(gòu)債規(guī)模之后美股走勢(shì)未受到影響主要是因?yàn)槊绹?guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面強(qiáng)勁。所以，這一次美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)回收流動(dòng)性，如經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面能夠保持強(qiáng)勁，則對(duì)股市有短期沖擊，但不會(huì)造成重大影響。同時(shí)隨著大宗商品價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲，以巴西、俄羅斯為代表的資源國(guó)的基本面不會(huì)差。而美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)較強(qiáng)，對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)中的出口國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)也提供支撐。經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)，則股市強(qiáng)，對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)回收流動(dòng)性也許并不需要談虎色變。

美股上周五大漲。4月非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù)26.6萬，預(yù)期為99.8萬。失業(yè)率上升到6.1%，預(yù)期為5.8%。非農(nóng)數(shù)據(jù)不及預(yù)期將延后美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收縮流動(dòng)性。

A-share tumbled while HK stocks fell slightly last Friday. Over the two trading days last week A-share fall sharply. The so-called Kweichow Moutai Index fell 4.92% after rising 7.4% in April. This index fell for two months in a row in Feb and March. The fall last week signals that its rebound in April came to the end. Its future is full of uncertainties as many stocks have fallen below 120-day moving average line. HK stocks traded for 5 days last week. Hang Seng Index, Enterprises Index and Tech Index fell 0.4%,1.71% and 4.31% respectively. 6 out of 12 Hang Seng Composite Index rose with raw material and energy sector rising the most.

How much impact would Fed’s tapering have on the stock market? Investors in A-share are concerned that Fed’s tapering might cause the global stock market to crash. The most recent tapering happened in 2014 and Fed announced the tapering in Dec. 2013. The US stock market was not affected that much while the emerging stock markets fell sharply in 2H2013 and 2014. There were three factors contributing to the poor  performance of the emerging markets. The first is that risk preference for emerging markets were lower than for developed markets as global economy was weak. The second is that US dollar appreciated in mid-2014 and this caused capital to fly back to the US stock markets. The last but not the least is that commodity prices declined and resource countries such as Brazil and Russia were faced with challenges to grow their economy. But this time things are different. The commodity prices are rising and hence resource countries would see robust economic growth. Moreover,strong economies of developed countries means that their consumption demand would drive the economic growth of export-oriented developing countries. Hence, this time might be different if Fed begins to taper.

The US stocks rallied. The lower-than-expected non-farm payroll might delay Fed’s action to take back liquidity.  

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