周二A股探底回升，港股大跌。周期股包括煤炭、鋼鐵和有色股普遍大幅調(diào)整，白酒股漲幅領(lǐng)先。港股恒生12個綜合行業(yè)中只有必需消費行業(yè)上漲，11行業(yè)下跌，其中原材料和科技行業(yè)跌幅居前。北上資金凈流出47.8億人民幣，南下資金凈流入49.3億港幣。周二央行發(fā)布一季度貨幣政策報告認為美債收益率上升以及美聯(lián)儲調(diào)整貨幣政策對我國影響有限且可控。我國4月份生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)上漲6.8%，超出市場預(yù)期的6.6%，漲幅比3月擴大2.4個百分點，主要是大宗商品價格上漲超預(yù)期。國際市場也普遍擔憂大宗商品上漲引發(fā)通脹超預(yù)期，進而促使美聯(lián)儲提前回收流動性。但高盛策略分析師認為通脹只是暫時的，而其大宗商品分析師則預(yù)計銅價將會持續(xù)數(shù)年上漲。盡管美聯(lián)儲有可能提前回收流動性，但不同以往，美元指數(shù)沒有走強，反而進一步走弱，在周二跌破90關(guān)口，為2月25日以來首次。市場當前預(yù)期似乎有點混亂。
第七次人口普查數(shù)據(jù)。國家統(tǒng)計局11日公布第七次全國人口普查數(shù)據(jù)，65歲或以上老年人口比率由2010年的8.9%擴至2020年的13.5%。去年人口平均年齡38.8歲，與美國相當。而我國人均GDP只有美國的1/6，未富先老是不可回避的現(xiàn)實。去年新生兒約1200萬人，創(chuàng)歷史低點，較2019年降低約18%。摩根大通發(fā)表研究報告，指出中國人口很可能于2025至2030年見頂之后下降，而老年人口比率預(yù)計從現(xiàn)在的13.5%擴大到2040年的23%至25%?？?cè)丝跍p少及人口老齡化將對中國潛在增長帶來負面影響，拖慢經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型及加劇社會保險資金缺口。報告稱，中國面臨人口陷阱風險，政府需多管齊下降低風險，包括盡快取消或進一步放寬生育政策等。因低生育率不僅由于生育政策，也是社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的結(jié)果，如養(yǎng)育小孩成本增加，結(jié)婚減少及離婚增加等，因此除放寬生育外，政府應(yīng)推出措施鼓勵結(jié)婚及生育，如子女免稅額、彈性工作安排、增加日間托兒服務(wù)及推出措施減少育兒成本。最后，中短期政府可逐步推遲退休年齡及加快新城市化(包括改革戶籍制度)以紓緩勞工短缺。
美股下跌。道指創(chuàng)下2月以來表現(xiàn)最差一天，科技股表現(xiàn)較好。
A-share rose while HK stocks crashed on Tuesday. Kweichow Moutai rose 4.3%and led the broad market. Cyclical stocks tumbled. In HK market except consumer stables the other 11 Hang Seng composite sectors all fell with raw material sector falling the most. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 4.78 billion while south-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$4.93 billion. The People’s Bank of China released monetary policy report for 1Q2021. It reiterated that the rise of the US treasury yield and that Fed adjusts its monetary policy would not have big impact on China. It also believed that the overall inflation is controllable in China. Yet international investors are quite concerned about the inflation and that Fed might take back liquidity earlier than expected due to the higher-than-expected inflation. The European stock markets tumbled as well on Tuesday. However, the US dollar index did not rise as usual but dived below 90 for the first time since Feb. 25th, 2021. It seems that market expectation is in chaos.
The seventh population census in China. China is facing population trap and government needs to take measures to deal with the rising elderly group and the decreasing birth rate. JP Morgan suggested that government should nullify birth control policy or loosen on birth control. Moreover, to increase birth rate government can give tax exemption and subsidies to those couples who have more children, provide baby nursery services and measures to cut back the costs of raising children. In the near-term government can promote delaying retirement age as well as reforming household registration system to lessen the pressure of labor shortage.
The US stocks fell. DOW tumbled 1.4%, its worst day since February. Nasdaq recovered losses and little changed at close. The key CPI data will come out on Wednesday. Market expects that April CPI will grow 3.6% year-on-year, which would be the highest since 2011.
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