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周一A股抱團(tuán)股再度大漲。因中小市值公司爆出市值管理的消息，周一抱團(tuán)股上漲，而部分中小市值個(gè)股及ST股大幅下跌。申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中17個(gè)上漲，11個(gè)下跌。其中上周五領(lǐng)漲的非銀金融板塊領(lǐng)跌，電氣設(shè)備、有色金屬和食品飲料領(lǐng)漲。港股恒指、國企指數(shù)和科技指數(shù)分別上漲0.5%、0.95%和1.78%。恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中11個(gè)上漲，只有公用事業(yè)下跌，上周大幅調(diào)整的原材料板塊領(lǐng)漲，科技板塊緊隨其后。北上和南下資金分別凈流入25.8億人民幣和84.6億港幣。北上資金凈買入貴州茅臺(tái)和美的7.6億和6.6億人民幣，南下資金凈買入騰訊和美團(tuán)30億和9.6億港幣。

經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)比動(dòng)能放緩。4月經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示工業(yè)生產(chǎn)和投資增速超預(yù)期，而消費(fèi)增速不及預(yù)期，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長動(dòng)能可能環(huán)比放緩。4月工業(yè)增加值和社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額同比分別增長9.8%和17.7%，1-4月固定資產(chǎn)投資同比增速為19.9%。社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額同比增速低于市場預(yù)期部分與疫情有關(guān)，另一方面反應(yīng)了經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)生動(dòng)能還不強(qiáng)。我們在2021年A股投資展望中提到，以官方制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)作為衡量指標(biāo)，從2005年以來我國一共經(jīng)歷了四輪完整的庫存周期，其中上行期持續(xù)13-23個(gè)月，上行幅度1.4-20個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；下行期持續(xù)23-28個(gè)月，下行幅度在1.4-19.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。一個(gè)完整的庫存周期持續(xù)36-51個(gè)月。本輪庫存周期應(yīng)是第五個(gè)，上行期始于2020年2月，當(dāng)時(shí)中國官方制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)為35.7，到今年3月份，該指數(shù)達(dá)到51.9，上行了16.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從時(shí)間和幅度來看，庫存周期的上行期可能已經(jīng)結(jié)束。4月中國制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)以及剛剛發(fā)布的4月份經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)來看，在一定程度上確認(rèn)上行期的結(jié)束。未來將會(huì)面臨庫存周期的下行期。經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩初期，早周期行業(yè)的增長可能要面臨挑戰(zhàn)，包括汽車和房地產(chǎn)。市場預(yù)期也將從央行何時(shí)加息轉(zhuǎn)向央行何時(shí)開始放水。

美股周一小幅下跌。科技股下跌拖累股市，蘋果和奈飛下跌0.9%，特斯拉下跌2%以上。瑞銀分析師認(rèn)為盡管通脹可能會(huì)引發(fā)擔(dān)憂，但市場總體上漲趨勢仍將在周期股的帶領(lǐng)下維持。沃爾瑪和家得寶將會(huì)在周二報(bào)告1季度業(yè)績。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose on Monday. The news that some listed mid-to-small-cap companies manipulated stock prices sent these companies’ stock prices down sharply. Group-holding stocks rallied as they are all big-cap companies.  17 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose with electric equipment, non-ferrous metal and food and beverage rising the most. The non-bank financial which performed the best last Friday fell the most. In HK only utilities fell out of the 12 sectors. The raw material sector which fell sharply last week rose the most and tech sector followed.

China economic growth rate might be slowing down. In April both China’s industrial value-added and fixed asset investment delivered growth rate above expectation. But consumption came in lower than expected. Both the leading indicator official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in April and the economic data released on Monday signals that China’s economic growth is slowing down month-on-month. We analyzed inventory cycle in “The investment outlook for A-share in2021” and found that based on official manufacturing PMI China experienced four full inventory cycles. The upswing stage of an inventory cycle usually lasts 13-23 months and downward stage lasts 23-28 months. The official manufacturing PMI can go up by 1.4-20 percentage point in upswing stage and go down by 1.4-19.8 percentage point in downward stage. A full inventory cycle lasts 36-51 months. The most recent inventory cycle began in Feb. 2020 when official manufacturing PMI reached the lowest point 35.7. It then went up by 16.2 percentage point till March 2021 and reached 51.9. We judged that the upswing stage of the inventory cycle might conclude and the downward stage might begin. The early-stage sectors including auto and property might face growth challenges as economy slows down. Market now expects the central bank to inject liquidity rather than to raise interest rate.

The US stocks fell slightly.Tech stocks fell. Inflation is still a concern but market might continue to rise in regardless of this.

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