周三A股漲跌不一。上證指數(shù)下跌0.51%，創(chuàng)業(yè)板指上漲0.9%。申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中9個(gè)上漲，19個(gè)下跌。其中汽車、休閑服務(wù)和電氣設(shè)備領(lǐng)漲，而鋼鐵、銀行和采掘領(lǐng)跌。周三香港市場因佛誕日休市，滬深股通和港股通均暫停交易。國常會(huì)時(shí)隔一周后再次討論大宗商品價(jià)格上漲問題，提高鋼鐵出口關(guān)稅以及降低進(jìn)口成本，同時(shí)排查異常交易和惡意炒作行為。受此消息影響，國內(nèi)大宗商品價(jià)格全線走低。
英國超預(yù)期的通脹引發(fā)歐洲股市大跌。英國4月消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比上漲1.5%，較3月份的同比增速0.7%增長一倍。去除能源以及其他價(jià)格波動(dòng)較大的項(xiàng)目，核心消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)上漲1.3%。英國銀行，即英國的中央銀行認(rèn)為通脹在向2%的政策目標(biāo)推進(jìn)，并有望在2021年底超過2.5%，但2022年通脹將會(huì)再次回到2%的水平。美國銀行分析師認(rèn)為能源價(jià)格將會(huì)推動(dòng)英國的通脹水平在11月份達(dá)到2.7%，之后回落到2%一下。生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)4月份同比上漲3.9%，主要是供應(yīng)鏈被疫情破壞所導(dǎo)致的。4月原材料價(jià)格同比上漲9.9%，是2017年2月以來的最大漲幅。英國銀行表示還沒有看到生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域的通脹向生活領(lǐng)域傳導(dǎo)的跡象。市場預(yù)計(jì)英國銀行會(huì)繼續(xù)保持寬松的貨幣政策直到2024年。受到英國通脹超預(yù)期影響，歐洲股市全線下跌。歐洲斯托克50指數(shù)下跌1.71%，英法德國家的股指均下跌超過1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
比特幣大跌。比特幣從4月高點(diǎn)下跌50%。根據(jù)摩根大通，機(jī)構(gòu)投資者在4月底之前停止了持續(xù)兩個(gè)季度買入比特幣的行為。機(jī)構(gòu)投資者買入比特幣主要是因?yàn)楸忍貛诺臄?shù)量被設(shè)定在2100萬枚，因而具有抵御通脹的能力。但隨著通脹來臨，他們又回到了黃金這一傳統(tǒng)對沖通脹品種。中國政府打壓虛擬貨幣加劇了零售投資人拋售比特幣。
美股探底回升。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)議紀(jì)要提到必要時(shí)要考慮縮減債券購買。但目前美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)似乎還沒有充分的理由。美元指數(shù)再度走強(qiáng)，站上90大關(guān)。在超預(yù)期的通脹與正在復(fù)蘇的經(jīng)濟(jì)之間，投資者無所適從，似乎找不到方向。
A-share mixed on contracted volume. Shanghai Composite Index fell while Chinext Index rose. 9 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose with auto, leisure service and electric equipment rising the most.Cyclical sectors fell the most. State council standing committee convened to discuss how to deal with the rising commodity prices. This is the second time for such a meeting in one week. The measures included decreasing the export duty and cutting back the import costs of iron and steel. It was also proposed to blow heavily on speculation in commodity future markets. Commodity prices fell sharply overnight. HK market closed for Buddha’s Birthday.
European stock market crashed on higher-than-expected inflation in the UK. The UK April Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.5% year-on-year (yoy) compared with 0.7% in March. Core CPI, which excludes energy and other volatile items, rose 1.3% yoy. Bank of England (BOE) believed that inflation will edge up above 2% and reach 2.5% by the end of 2021. But it will fall below 2% in 2022. Bank of America held the same view. They expected inflation to reach 2.7% in November due to the rising energy prices. But it will fall below 2% in 2022. Producer’s Price Index rose 3.9% yoy and input costs rose 9% yoy in April. BOE said they did not see the evidence that the input costs were feeding through to consumer.Market is still expecting BOE to remain easing monetary policy until 2024.
Bitcoin tumbled. It fell 50% from its high in April. JP Morgan observed that institutional investors stopped buying bitcoin, which already continued for two quarters in a row, at the end of April. With the inflation coming they shifted back to gold, the traditional tool for hedging against inflation.
The US stocks recovered big losses and closed down slightly.Fed’s minutes in April showed that Fed would begin to consider tapering once economy grows strongly. Market stopped panic at this news.
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