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上周全球主要股市均上漲。我們跟蹤的全球16個(gè)主要國(guó)家和地區(qū)指數(shù)都上漲。其中中國(guó)臺(tái)灣、上證指數(shù)和深證指數(shù)漲幅領(lǐng)先，恒生指數(shù)排在漲幅第六位。A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中25個(gè)上漲，抱團(tuán)股漲幅領(lǐng)先，而農(nóng)林牧漁、公用事業(yè)和鋼鐵三個(gè)行業(yè)下跌。港股恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中9個(gè)行業(yè)上漲，3個(gè)行業(yè)下跌，其中金融、非必需消費(fèi)和綜合業(yè)漲幅居前，而電信、能源和科技行業(yè)下跌。北上資金凈流入468.1億人民幣，為年初以來周度凈流入最大，南下資金凈流入76.9億港幣，較前一周下降62%。

新冠危機(jī)和08年金融危機(jī)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)放水的效果有很大不同。2020年3月疫情發(fā)生后，美國(guó)狹義貨幣M1從2020年2月底的3.4萬億美金（下同）上升到2021年4月底的6萬億，11個(gè)月間上升75%（圖一）；同期M2（即銀行存款加上現(xiàn)金）從1.5萬億上漲到2萬億，上漲32%（圖二）。對(duì)照2008年8月底，基礎(chǔ)貨幣接近8500億，到2009年9月上漲到1.8萬億，上漲121%；而同期廣義貨幣M2僅上漲了8.4%。本輪危機(jī)中M2增速超過金融危機(jī)期間的增速，主要是因?yàn)楸敬挝C(jī)后美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將資金直接發(fā)放到消費(fèi)者手中。而2008年美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是將資金發(fā)給銀行，并且對(duì)存在銀行的超額儲(chǔ)備金支付利息，導(dǎo)致這些錢一直存在銀行賬戶上，沒有產(chǎn)生貨幣派生，所以M2增速低于基礎(chǔ)貨幣增速。08年以來雖然美國(guó)放水不少，但通脹一直保持在較低水平，這是一個(gè)原因。新冠疫情發(fā)生后，美國(guó)貨幣流通速度直線下降，M1的貨幣流通速度從2020年3月底的5.25下降到2020年底的1.22（圖三），而同期M2 的貨幣流通速度從1.38下降到1.13，M1和M2流通速度的降幅分別為77%和18%。而2008年金融危機(jī)期間，M1和M2的流通速度分別從2008年9月份的10.37和1.9下降到2009年9月份的8.67和1.7，分別下降了16.8%和8.4%。本次危機(jī)貨幣流通速度大幅下降因?yàn)橐咔椴淮_定性導(dǎo)致老百姓手握巨額現(xiàn)金而不敢花錢。隨著疫情緩解，美國(guó)消費(fèi)者加大支出，低利率、低通脹和低增長(zhǎng)的時(shí)代可能即將過去。

圖一：美國(guó)狹義貨幣

數(shù)據(jù)來源：WIND

圖二：美國(guó)廣義貨幣M2

數(shù)據(jù)來源：WIND

圖三：M1和M2的流通速度

數(shù)據(jù)來源：WIND

美股上漲。本周五將發(fā)布的非農(nóng)就業(yè)報(bào)告會(huì)影響聯(lián)儲(chǔ)行動(dòng)。就業(yè)狀況如果改善，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)拖延寬松的貨幣政策就沒有有力的借口。

Last week (the same below) all of the major indexes in the world rose. Taiwan China, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index rose the most. Hang Seng Index was ranked at the sixth in terms of rise range. 25 out of 28 sectors rose in A-share with group-holding stocks rising the most while farming and fishery, utilities and iron and steel falling. 9 out of 12 sectors in HK market rose with financials, discretionary consumption and conglomerates rising the most. Telecom, energy and technology sector fell. North-bound capital net inflow was RMB 468.1 billion, the highest weekly net inflow year-to-date. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$7.69 billion, down 62% from the previous week.

The stimulus effects are different between pandemic crisis and 2008 global financial crisis. In 2008 Fed injected liquidity to financial institutions and paid interest for excess deposit reserve. This caused that financial institutions kept big amount of money on their accounts and the economy got little money. This explains the low inflation since 2008. This time the US government transferred big money to consumers. Hence, there was more money in economy this time than after 2008 financial crisis. Another difference between these two crises is that velocity of  M1 and M2 fell sharply in this pandemic crisis compared with 2008 financial crisis. The reason behind is that while consumers have big money on hands the uncertainties associated with the pandemic forced them to save money rather than to spend. But as the pandemic hasbeen well under controlled with vaccination rollout going smoothly the uncertainties would disappear gradually. American consumers will spend money and drive up inflation as well as economic growth sooner or later.

Dow and SP 500 rose lastFriday. The non-farm payroll in April to be released oncoming Friday would have a big impact on Fed’s decision of tapering.  If the non-farm payroll comes in above expectation, the Fed would have no good excuse to delay in taking back liquidity.

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