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周一A股和港股均上漲。A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中20個(gè)上漲，其中電氣設(shè)備、國防軍工和有色金屬行業(yè)漲幅領(lǐng)先，而休閑服務(wù)、家用電器和交通運(yùn)輸行業(yè)跌幅領(lǐng)先。港股恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中5個(gè)上漲，其中醫(yī)療保健、科技和必需消費(fèi)業(yè)漲幅居前，而公用事業(yè)、綜合和金融領(lǐng)跌。北上資金凈流入52.1億人民幣，南下資金凈流出9.5億港幣。

5月PMI和三孩政策。5月官方制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)仍處在擴(kuò)張階段，但外需有所走弱，可能是國外疫情緩解導(dǎo)致當(dāng)?shù)禺a(chǎn)能提升造成對(duì)國內(nèi)產(chǎn)品的擠出效應(yīng)。三孩政策出臺(tái)推動(dòng)了A股和港股的相關(guān)股票上漲。據(jù)人口專家估算，三孩政策將會(huì)使明年出生人口增加不到100萬，有利于阻止出生人口持續(xù)下滑的局面。但從西方國家的經(jīng)驗(yàn)看，當(dāng)人口總和出生率下降后，鼓勵(lì)生育政策很難在短期內(nèi)取得明顯成效。

抱團(tuán)股上漲和人民幣升值。央行31日發(fā)布公告稱，為加強(qiáng)金融機(jī)構(gòu)外匯流動(dòng)性管理，中國人民銀行決定，自2021年6月15日起，上調(diào)金融機(jī)構(gòu)外匯存款準(zhǔn)備金率2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，即外匯存款準(zhǔn)備金率由現(xiàn)行的5%提高到7%。上周，人民幣對(duì)美元匯率中間價(jià)累計(jì)升值442點(diǎn)，幅度0.69%，創(chuàng)近20周最大單周升值幅度。截至2021年4月底，金融機(jī)構(gòu)外匯存款余額為1萬億美金，上調(diào)2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)可凍結(jié)200億美金的外匯存款。外匯占款是我國基礎(chǔ)貨幣發(fā)行的渠道之一。近期，銀行間流動(dòng)性寬松，市場對(duì)央行政策的轉(zhuǎn)向擔(dān)憂基本消失。我們認(rèn)為央行的政策導(dǎo)向仍然沒有變，但由于人民幣升值導(dǎo)致外資涌入，造成外匯占款上升，而央行不得不在外匯占款的基礎(chǔ)上發(fā)行基礎(chǔ)貨幣，對(duì)國內(nèi)市場提供了流動(dòng)性。國內(nèi)流動(dòng)性充裕的條件下，估值高的抱團(tuán)股再度卷土重來。個(gè)別股票已經(jīng)創(chuàng)出歷史新高。抱團(tuán)股的炒作是否能夠持續(xù)與流動(dòng)性緊密相關(guān)。央行在對(duì)外匯流動(dòng)性管理后，國內(nèi)市場的流動(dòng)性也將受到一定的影響。同時(shí)，未來不排除央行出手對(duì)國內(nèi)流動(dòng)性進(jìn)行管理。純粹拉估值的狂歡也將會(huì)戛然而止。

美股上漲。經(jīng)合組織上調(diào)今明兩年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長到5.8%和4.4%。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose on Monday. 20 out of 28 sectors rose in A-share with electric equipment,military and defense and non-ferrous metal rising the most. Leisure service, home appliance and transportation fell the most. The pandemic surged in Guangzhou caused investors to dump airlines and railway stocks. 5 out of 12 sectors in HK rose. Healthcare, tech and discretionary consumption rose the most and tech, conglomerates and financial fell the most. North-bound capital net inflow was RMB 5.21 billion. South-bound capital net outflow was HK$950 million. 

The rise of group-holding stocks and RMB appreciation. The funds outstanding for foreign exchange is one of the channels to issue base money for the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). With the appreciation of RMB over the last two months, PBOC had to inject liquidity into the market. This is the major reason that liquidity in interbank lending market has been abundant recently.Market thought that PBOC was not U-turning from its easing monetary policy. As a result, the high-valued group-holding stocks rallied and some of them have seen stock prices reach a historical high. On Monday PBOC announced that it would raise foreign exchange reserve ratio from 5% to 7% from June 15th with a purpose to restrain the fast appreciation of RMB. As the end of April therewas a total of US$ 1 trillion foreign exchange in f inancial institutions’ accounts. This measure would therefore freeze US$2 million foreign exchange,which would affect domestic liquidity as well. PBOC might manage domestic liquidity if there is a risk of asset bubble, as it did in February this year.  The carnival of group-holding stocks might come to an abrupt end by then. Remember to leave the dancing floor earlier.

The US stocks rose. OECD raised global economic growth rate for this year and 2022 from 5.6% and 4% to 5.8% and 4.4%. The new cases of COVID-19 in the US dropped to the lowest level since March 2020.

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