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周二A股指數(shù)漲跌不一。上證指數(shù)小幅上漲，創(chuàng)業(yè)板指小幅下跌，科創(chuàng)50則上漲超過(guò)1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，創(chuàng)出4個(gè)月新高。申萬(wàn)28個(gè)行業(yè)中20個(gè)上漲，其中采掘、化工和紡織服裝領(lǐng)漲，而非銀金融、電器設(shè)備和銀行跌幅領(lǐng)先。人民銀行擬上調(diào)外匯存款準(zhǔn)備金率對(duì)人民幣匯率構(gòu)成沖擊，人民幣升值趨勢(shì)暫緩。港股恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中7個(gè)上漲，其中科技、能源和非必需性消費(fèi)漲幅居前，而必需消費(fèi)、綜合和原材料行業(yè)領(lǐng)跌。北上資金凈流入11億人民幣，南下資金凈流入52.9億港幣。A股和港股六月第一個(gè)交易日可以視為開門紅。五月不窮，六月是否“絕”有待觀察。

通脹很可能不是暫時(shí)性的。通脹有三種類型，一種是需求拉動(dòng)型，一種是成本推動(dòng)性，最后一種是供應(yīng)短缺造成的通脹。所有的通脹最后都會(huì)走向滯漲。美國(guó)上世紀(jì)70年代的滯漲就是一系列通脹最終的結(jié)果。我們判斷如果此次通脹超預(yù)期，很有可能是上述三種類型通脹的組合。美國(guó)大型連鎖超市開市客的首席財(cái)務(wù)官在2021年1季度業(yè)績(jī)發(fā)布的電話會(huì)議上指出芯片短缺影響經(jīng)濟(jì)的各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)，造成通脹壓力。同時(shí)，通脹壓力還來(lái)自于集裝箱的短缺和運(yùn)輸成本的上升，上升的勞動(dòng)力成本，各種商品的短缺以及上升的大宗商品價(jià)格。他特別提到的商品包括牛肉、紙制品和鋁箔。2021年4月美國(guó)個(gè)人消費(fèi)支出指數(shù)，這是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)跟蹤通脹的重要指標(biāo)，同比上漲3.1%，超預(yù)期。同時(shí)4月份的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比上漲4.2%，為2008年9月以來(lái)的最高月度漲幅。高盛分析師認(rèn)為供應(yīng)短缺導(dǎo)致的通脹在秋季有可能消失，因?yàn)橐咔榇蠓徑庵蠊?yīng)鏈也將會(huì)隨之修復(fù)。長(zhǎng)期而言，通脹是否能夠持續(xù)取決于經(jīng)濟(jì)是否過(guò)熱，就業(yè)超過(guò)長(zhǎng)期潛在水平。高盛近期大幅上調(diào)6月消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)上漲幅度到3.6%，全年預(yù)計(jì)在3.5%。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員在近期的講話中一再?gòu)?qiáng)調(diào)他們認(rèn)為通脹只會(huì)持續(xù)幾個(gè)月。當(dāng)然如果他們發(fā)現(xiàn)通脹不是暫時(shí)性的，他們也會(huì)采取行動(dòng)。一些投資人賭注美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的判斷是錯(cuò)誤的。如果通脹不是暫時(shí)性的，也許意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)高增長(zhǎng)也不是暫時(shí)性的。

美股復(fù)蘇股上漲，科技股下跌。數(shù)據(jù)顯示勞動(dòng)力短缺推升通脹。

Most of the major indexes in both A-share and HK market rose on Monday.RMB appreciation trend paused as the People’s Bank of China announced that they would raise the foreign exchange reserve ratio. North-bound capital still registered net inflow of HK$1.1 billion.

The inflation might not be transient. There are three types of inflation. The first one is demand-driven. The second type is cost-driven and the third one is caused by supply shortage. The CFO of Costco told analysts in its 1Q2021 earnings call held recently that there had been and were a variety of inflationary pressures. Inflationary factors abound. These include higher labor costs, higher freight costs, higher transportation demand,along with the container shortage and port delays, increased demand in various product categories, various shortages of everything from chips to oils and chemical supplies by facilities hit by the Gulf freeze and storms and, in some cases, higher commodity prices. He mentioned particular inflationary pressure in beef, paper goods and aluminum foil. Goldman Sachs economist believed that worker and auto shortage were probably going to be much less of a factor once into the fall. But in the short-term, it is an upside risk. Longer term, the key questions are whether the economy is going to overheat and to move far beyond the potential long-term sustainable level of household unemployment. If that were the case, then investors would have to be more worried about inflation. But they don't really expect that. Both CPI and Personal consumption expenditure in April came in higher than expected. While Fed has reiterated that inflation would only last several months, markets are betting that they could be wrong. If inflation is not transient, the high growth rate of economy will persist as well.

The US stocks mixed on Monday. Reopening stocks rose while tech stocks fell. The ISM PMI in May showed that labor shortage was pushing up inflation.

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