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周一A股上漲，港股下跌。A股和港股并未受到上周五美股上漲的影響，開盤下跌。A股因?yàn)楸局苡芯揞~解禁以及周末宣布的部分上市公司大股東減持的消息而承壓，港股則因?yàn)閺V州疫情擴(kuò)散的影響而下跌。北上和南下資金分別凈流出39.7億人民幣和14.5億港幣。5月以美元計(jì)價(jià)的出口金額同比增速為27.9%，低于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，概因廣州和深圳疫情對(duì)港口處理貨物的能力造成影響。疫情偶發(fā)不斷，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的負(fù)面影響也持續(xù)存在，這在一定程度上也擾亂了經(jīng)濟(jì)自身的周期性規(guī)律。未來經(jīng)濟(jì)的好轉(zhuǎn)需要疫情完全處于控制之下，而這需要疫苗接種率達(dá)到80%的水平，我國(guó)可能年底前才可能做到。

高通脹將擠破資產(chǎn)泡沫。通脹在股票市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)到了讓人談虎色變的程度。但通脹并非一無是處。在經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇階段，通脹上升其實(shí)反應(yīng)旺盛的需求。一般而言，3%以下的通脹水平是溫和的，可以接受的。就如同美國(guó)財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)耶倫所說，過去10多年來，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一直在與通縮對(duì)抗，通脹的到來有利于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。超過3%的通脹一般被視為惡性通貨膨脹。惡性通貨膨脹通常會(huì)擾亂正常的經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行秩序，抑制消費(fèi)，同時(shí)引發(fā)收入分配的不均衡。所以，各國(guó)政府都會(huì)打壓惡性通貨膨脹。美國(guó)4月消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)為4.2%，已經(jīng)達(dá)到惡性通貨膨脹的區(qū)間。4月個(gè)人消費(fèi)支出物價(jià)指數(shù)（PCE）同比上漲3.58%，而核心PCE上漲3.06%，連續(xù)4個(gè)月超出市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，也超過了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)設(shè)定的2%的通脹目標(biāo)。本周將發(fā)布5月份的通脹數(shù)據(jù)，如超出預(yù)期，對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的寬松貨幣政策將會(huì)構(gòu)成一定程度的壓力。通脹的上漲通常伴隨著利率的上升，而利率上升對(duì)高估值股票會(huì)構(gòu)成壓力。上世紀(jì)70年代的漂亮50泡沫破裂后，其估值從高達(dá)90多倍下跌到10多倍，其中一個(gè)重要因素就是通脹上升導(dǎo)致利率上升，從而刺穿了估值的泡沫。所以，高估值的股票有較大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。此輪經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇過程中通脹到底漲到什么水平以及利率能夠上到多高是未知的。但歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)看，任何泡沫都會(huì)破滅,只是何時(shí)破滅無法確定。

美股科技股上漲，周期股回落。聯(lián)儲(chǔ)議息會(huì)議前市場(chǎng)謹(jǐn)慎。G7會(huì)議決定全球征收15% 的最低所得稅率打擊大型科技股，因其當(dāng)前繳納稅率低于15%。

On Monday A-share rose while HK stocks fell.  In A-share some high-valued stocks announced that major shareholders will sell stocks. In HK market the pandemic in Guangdong Province caused market concern on economic recovery. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 3.97 billion and HK$ 1.45 billion respectively.

The high inflation would cause the asset bubble to burst.  Inflation has become the top concern for investors worldwide. Yet when economy is recovering inflation actually reflects strong demand. And if inflation is below 3% it is acceptable. As Yellen, the Ministry of Finance in the US, said on Monday that inflation is good for the US economy. After all, the Federal Reserve of the US fought with deflation over the last decade in vain. But if inflation is above 4% it is called hyperinflation and is usually considered as vicious. Governments would take measures to fight the hyperinflation as it would cause disorder of economy including pressing demand and unfair income allocation. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.2% year-on-year (yoy) in April into the hyperinflation levels. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), an inflation benchmark that Fed follows, rose 3.58% yoy andcore PCE rose 3.06% yoy in April. Both are higher than the 2% target set by Fed.Next week CPI in May would be released. If that’s higher than market expected,the Fed is under pressure to take back liquidity. High inflation usually drives up interest rate, which would cause stock valuation to fall. A case in point is the Nifty-Fifty in the 1970s, when the hyperinflation caused interest rate to fly and the Nifty-Fifty’s valuation to fall from 90x price-to-earnings ratio （PE） to 10x PE in ten years. We don’t know how high the inflation would rise ultimately as well as the interest rate. But high-valued stocks would come under pressure with the inflation and interest rate going up. Bubbles will burst for sure with the interest rate climbing.  

Tech stocks rose while cyclical sectors fell in the US.  Market is cautious ahead of the Fed meeting next week. 

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