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周三A股上漲，港股微跌。A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中18個(gè)上漲，10個(gè)下跌。其中鋼鐵、化工和采掘漲幅居前，而休閑服務(wù)、商業(yè)貿(mào)易和非銀金融跌幅居前。港股12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中9個(gè)上漲，其中能源、醫(yī)療保健和電訊行業(yè)漲幅居前，而金融、科技和非必需消費(fèi)業(yè)下跌。國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局發(fā)布的五月份消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比上漲1.3%，低于預(yù)期；而生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比增速9%，為2008年8月以來最高增速，超出預(yù)期。消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)漲幅低于預(yù)期主要是生豬價(jià)格下跌幅度過大造成的，我們認(rèn)為一輪豬周期還沒有走完，豬價(jià)同比跌幅應(yīng)至少延續(xù)到3季度末，拖了消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比漲幅持續(xù)低于預(yù)期。而生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)的上漲主要是因?yàn)樯嫌沃芷诠缮蠞q造成的。下半年生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)很可能持續(xù)保持在高位，利好上游周期股。同時(shí)，名義GDP增速也將抬升。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不可能完成的使命。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在下周議息會(huì)議上討論削減債券購買計(jì)劃。這個(gè)討論的過程將持續(xù)到7月份。目前，至少有5位美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員表達(dá)了需要削減債券購買的意向。市場預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將會(huì)在9-11月份之間宣布削減債券購買計(jì)劃，而實(shí)施等到12月或明年1月份。削減債券購買計(jì)劃不意味著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不購買債券，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將會(huì)繼續(xù)購買債券直到2022年，只不過購買的規(guī)?？s小了，當(dāng)前每月購買1200億美金債券。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將致力于避免產(chǎn)生2013年的債券縮減恐慌，即時(shí)任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席伯南克暗示將進(jìn)行債券削減后，美國國債收益率大幅上揚(yáng)導(dǎo)致市場大幅調(diào)整。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)認(rèn)為當(dāng)時(shí)之所以市場會(huì)如此反應(yīng)是因?yàn)槭袌鲱A(yù)期美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)削減債券購買之后就會(huì)加息，而這一次，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將會(huì)明確傳達(dá)削減債券購買計(jì)劃的經(jīng)濟(jì)條件和加息的經(jīng)濟(jì)條件是完全不同的，從而達(dá)到抑制國債收益率上漲的目的。但如果通脹持續(xù)上升，這個(gè)使命可能無法完成。

美股下跌。美國總統(tǒng)拜登與共和黨人商討的基建計(jì)劃失敗，受益于基建計(jì)劃的工業(yè)股指數(shù)下跌1%。10年國債收益率跌到1.5%以下，為五月以來的首次，受此影響，金融股下跌。市場都在等待今晚發(fā)布的五月份的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)，據(jù)此判斷美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)何時(shí)收緊QE政策。

On Wednesday A-share rose while HK stocks fell slightly. Consumer Price Index rose 1.3% year-on-year (yoy)in May, lower than expected due to that swine prices dropped more than expected. Producer’s Price Index rose 9% yoy, the highest growth rate since August 2008 and mainly due to the high-flying commodity prices. Cyclical sectors rose the most and high-valued stocks fell in A-share. In HK energy sector rose the most while financials fell the most.

Fed’s mission impossible. The Fed is in the early stages of a campaign to ready markets for reducing its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases to stimulate the economy. While the discussion may take place, an announcement of a decision to actually taper would be several months later, perhaps in late summer or early fall. That announcement would then put the beginning of the asset reduction further out,perhaps by year-end or early next year. Since the Fed will taper its purchases,that is, reduce the amount it buys by some amount each month, that timeline would still see the Fed purchasing billions of dollars of assets well into 2022, though at an increasingly slower pace. Behind the glacial pace of reducing asset purchases is a deliberate attempt to avoid another so-called taper tantrum, the sharp spike in bond yields in 2013 that came after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted asset purchases could wind down. One view inside the Fed is that the taper tantrum occurred because it failed to adequately separate in the market’s mind the timelines for hiking interest rates and for reducing asset purchases. This time, the Fed is creating a long runway for tapering, making clear that rate increases only come after this process. It also has set a higher standard of economic improvement required for rate increases than it has for asset purchase reductions. But a persisting inflation would break Fed’s plan.

The US stocks fell.  Market is waiting for the US May CPI data to gauge when the Fed will begin to taper. 

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