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周四A股上漲而港股下跌。A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中16個(gè)上漲，12個(gè)下跌。計(jì)算機(jī)、電氣設(shè)備和汽車領(lǐng)漲，而農(nóng)林牧漁、采掘和房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)跌。A股核心資產(chǎn)上漲，因美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率走低。北上資金搶籌，凈流入68.1億人民幣。港股12個(gè)行業(yè)中，6個(gè)上漲，6個(gè)下跌，其中工業(yè)漲幅領(lǐng)先，而原材料和金融行業(yè)跌幅領(lǐng)先。
五月廣義貨幣增速觸底反彈。五月廣義貨幣（M2）同比增速為8.3%，較4月份的8.1%上升0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)?？紤]到過去10年廣義貨幣同比增速最低都在8%以上，廣義貨幣同比增速應(yīng)已見底回升。但如果中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)潛在增速持續(xù)下行，不排除廣義貨幣同比增速創(chuàng)出低于8%的水平。狹義貨幣（M1）同比增速為6.1%，較4月份的6.2%下跌0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。社會(huì)融資規(guī)模存量同比增速為11%。無論是狹義貨幣還是社融存量，從去年2季度到4季度都處在同比增速較高的水平。因此，未來狹義貨幣和社融存量增速同比仍將持續(xù)走低，除非央行再度放水。寬信用、緊貨幣的狀況有可能會(huì)持續(xù)到年底。
美國(guó)五月消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)（CPI）同比上漲5%。這是2008年8月以來最高的月度漲幅。核心消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比上漲3.7%，是1992年以來的最大月度漲幅。市場(chǎng)對(duì)通脹是暫時(shí)的還是持續(xù)的有很大分歧。高盛分析師認(rèn)為通脹是暫時(shí)的，隨著供應(yīng)鏈修復(fù)，通脹將會(huì)在今年下半年同比增速下行。這也是市場(chǎng)當(dāng)前共識(shí)。但德意志銀行分析師則認(rèn)為上世紀(jì)70年的高通漲可能卷土重來，當(dāng)時(shí)的年平均通脹為7%。而通過加息的方法抑制通脹對(duì)債務(wù)率較高的新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家是災(zāi)難性的。因經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將不足以覆蓋飛速上漲的融資成本。我們?cè)?/font>這次也許不一樣中指出，本次美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收縮流動(dòng)性將不會(huì)造成2013年那樣對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)的重大沖擊，因通脹高企將導(dǎo)致國(guó)債實(shí)際收益率下降，有利于股市和新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家。五月CPI數(shù)據(jù)出來后，美國(guó)債名義和實(shí)際收益率均下降。
美科技股領(lǐng)漲三大股指。美兩黨接近達(dá)成縮小版基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施計(jì)劃，據(jù)稱無需加稅融資。
On Thursday A-share rose while HK stocks fell slightly. Due to the falling US treasury yield, group-holding stocks rallied in A-share. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 6.81billion. 6 out of 12 sectors in HK market rose with industrial rising the most and financials falling the most.
Broad money supply in May was higher than expected. Broad money (M2) rose 8.3% year-on-year (yoy), 0.2 percentage point (ppt) higher thanin April. Narrow money (M1) rose 6.1% (yoy), 0.1 ppt lower than in April. As M2 grew at above 8% yoy growth rate over the last ten years, we believe that M2 growth rate should have bottomed up if China’s potential economic growth rate would not fall further from current levels. Aggregate social financing rose 11% yoy. Both M1 and aggregate money supply grew at high rates from 2Q-4Q2020 in order to save economy from the pandemic. Hence, both would see their yoy growth rate slow down till the year-end.
This time should be different. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inMay in the US came in at 5% yoy, the highest monthly yoy growth rate since August 2008. The core CPI, which excludes the energy and food prices, rose 3.7% yoy and was the highest since 1992. Whether high CPI would be transitory or here to stay is different among investment banks. Goldman Sachs believed that with supply chain recovery CPI would edge lower in 2H2021. While Deutsche Bank worried that the high inflation in the 1970s would come back again when the CPI grew atan average 7% per year. DB particularly picked out emerging markets as the main victims as the high interest rate pushed by high inflation would make debt a bigger burden for emerging markets. We have concluded that this time the US treasury real yield would go down due to the high inflation. This is actually good for stocks and emerging markets.
The US stocks rose. Tech stocks rallied. The two parties reached consensus on infrastructure plan without raising taxes.
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