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上周（下同）全球主要指數(shù)漲多跌少。全球16個主要國家和地區(qū)的指數(shù)中，10個上漲，1個持平，5個下跌。其中俄羅斯指數(shù)、納斯達克指數(shù)和法國股指漲幅領(lǐng)先，而德國股指持平，道瓊斯指數(shù)、巴西股指、A股上證和深證及港股恒生指數(shù)下跌。上周石油價格繼續(xù)飆升，俄羅斯指數(shù)受益。而隨著美國國債收益率下跌，大型科技股重拾升勢，納指漲幅喜人。上半年即將過去，我們將在6月19日晚8點通過騰訊會議討論下半年投資機會，騰訊會議號為783 974 744，電話撥入中國大陸為+86 755 3655 0000，中國香港為+852 3001 8898，會議密碼為202106，歡迎撥冗參會。

A股和港股行業(yè)表現(xiàn)。A股申萬28個行業(yè)中14個上漲，14個下跌，其中計算機軟件、綜合和汽車漲幅領(lǐng)先，而農(nóng)林牧漁、食品飲料和家用電器跌幅領(lǐng)先。上周白酒股大幅調(diào)整，引發(fā)市場對白酒板塊是否見頂?shù)挠懻?。白酒股估值處在歷史較高水平，如今年業(yè)績增速下行，則板塊見頂概率較大。港股恒生12個綜合行業(yè)中，7個上漲，5個下跌。其中能源、公用事業(yè)和醫(yī)療保健漲幅居前，而金融、綜合和科技行業(yè)跌幅居前。

你在哪個陣營？美國國債收益率近期跌落到1.5%以下。華爾街知名分析師大衛(wèi)·羅森博格認為近期的高通脹是因供需暫時不匹配造成的，不會持續(xù)，而美國國債收益率將回落到1%的水平。他建議買入消費防御股，回避周期股和受益經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇的股票。美聯(lián)儲周二和周三將進行議息會議，市場關(guān)注其是否討論何時進行債券削減的討論。多數(shù)華爾街大行與美聯(lián)儲的想法一致，認為通脹是暫時的，此次議息會議美聯(lián)儲將不會討論何時縮減債券購買規(guī)模，因美聯(lián)儲的主要政策目標失業(yè)率仍處在高位。當前美國隱性失業(yè)率仍高達8-9%，離充分就業(yè)還有很大距離。有25個州已取消了每周300美金的額外失業(yè)救濟，這25個州占美國失業(yè)人口總數(shù)的1/4。取消額外失業(yè)補貼可能會促使200萬人口加入勞動大軍。隨著疫苗接種持續(xù)覆蓋更多人群及聯(lián)邦失業(yè)救濟金在9月份到期，就業(yè)狀況將會有較大改觀，屆時美聯(lián)儲將開始討論縮減債券規(guī)模。但是通脹在這個過程中是一個擾動因素。下半年通脹如持續(xù)上漲，美聯(lián)儲將被迫提早收回流動性。通脹是短暫的還是持久的？你站在哪一邊？

Most of the global major indexes rose last week (the same below). As oil prices hit new high since the pandemic, Russia stocks rose the most among the 16 major indexes globally. 5 stock indexes fell which include DOW, Brazil Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and Hang Seng Index.  

Which camp are you in?  The US 10-year Treasury yield fell below 1.5% following the lower-than-expected May non-farm payroll data. David Rosenberg, a famous Wall Street economist, believed that the current high inflation was caused by surging demand and supply shortage and won’t last long. He recommended defensive stocks and considered that consumer cyclical stocks and reopening trades would be hurt by falling treasury yield. The Federal Reserve will have Federal Open Market Conference (FOMC) on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. Market will pay attention to whether they have talked about talking about taper. Most investment banks expect that inflation would not last long. They also do not expect Fed to talk about taper in this FOMC as the unemployment rate is still at high levels. The recessive unemployment rate is 8-9%, much higher than full employment, which is the policy target of the Fed. 25 states, which account for one quarter of total unemployment population,  ended the extra US$300 weekly payment. As a result some 2 million population can get into the labor force. With vaccination rolling out smoothly and federal unemployment payment to end in September, the unemployment rate would drop further. By then the Fed could talk about taper.Yet inflation will be a key factor to watch. If it persists, then Fed would be forced to take back liquidity earlier than expected. Is inflation to persist or not, which camp are you in?

The US stocks mixed on Monday. Tech stocks rallied as the treasury yield fell to three-month low. Nasdaq rose 0.74%. DOW fell slightly. The three major indexes are all at record levels. Market is waiting for the signal of tapering from FOMC.

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