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A股和港股均下跌。A股申萬(wàn)28個(gè)行業(yè)中僅3個(gè)上漲，分別為電子、汽車(chē)和國(guó)防軍工，25個(gè)下跌的行業(yè)中，休閑服務(wù)、有色金屬和鋼鐵跌幅居前。港股12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中只有非必需消費(fèi)和工業(yè)行業(yè)上漲，其余10個(gè)行業(yè)下跌，其中原材料和醫(yī)療保健跌幅居前。北上資金凈流出51.5億人民幣，南下資金凈流出4億港幣。一方面有報(bào)道國(guó)儲(chǔ)擬拋售儲(chǔ)備銅給下游終端企業(yè)，并將持續(xù)到年底，導(dǎo)致有色金屬行業(yè)大幅調(diào)整；另一方面，前期漲幅較大的板塊面臨獲利資金了解的壓力。

下半年經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)滯漲嗎？我們認(rèn)為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)是滯漲的走勢(shì)，因?yàn)榘l(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家3、4季度還會(huì)因?yàn)橐咔榻獬鴮?dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)脈沖向上?？紤]到美國(guó)老百姓手里巨額的現(xiàn)金，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)甚至有過(guò)熱的可能。歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)也不會(huì)差，最新結(jié)束的歐央行會(huì)議維持當(dāng)前債券購(gòu)買(mǎi)規(guī)模，顯示政策對(duì)歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的支持將會(huì)持續(xù)。中國(guó)當(dāng)前處在經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的頂部因而類(lèi)似滯漲。但因?yàn)槟壳皟H僅是生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域的通脹，其傳導(dǎo)到消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域至少需要半年的時(shí)間，因此，也只是類(lèi)滯漲。上世紀(jì)70年代美國(guó)的滯漲一方面是制造業(yè)優(yōu)勢(shì)不再，另一方面第三次工業(yè)革命到了停滯階段，疊加美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在60年代不斷放水，導(dǎo)致貨幣供應(yīng)量大增，同時(shí)因?yàn)槭臀C(jī)，造成石油價(jià)格飆升。大放水下通脹預(yù)期抬升造成工資成本螺旋式上漲導(dǎo)致通脹持續(xù)上升。因此，滯漲不是想來(lái)就來(lái)的，它的發(fā)生也需要天時(shí)、地利和人和。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)從2008年全球金融危機(jī)發(fā)生后大放水直至2013年開(kāi)始回收流動(dòng)性。但到2020年新冠危機(jī)發(fā)生之前雖加息十次，聯(lián)邦基金利率從0.25%上升到2.25%，對(duì)照2008年全球金融危機(jī)發(fā)生之前的3-5%。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)縮減了資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表從4萬(wàn)多億美金縮減到3.3萬(wàn)億左右，而金融危機(jī)發(fā)生之前為8000億的水平。新冠危機(jī)之后的放水更是史無(wú)前例，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表擴(kuò)大到6萬(wàn)多億。從流動(dòng)性角度，跟上世紀(jì)70年代有點(diǎn)像。但商品是否短缺以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增速會(huì)否下行，可能需要我們邊走邊看。

美股高位回落。聯(lián)儲(chǔ)議息會(huì)議前投資者態(tài)度謹(jǐn)慎。美國(guó)5月零售銷(xiāo)售月率實(shí)際公布為-1.30%，預(yù)期為-0.7%。

Both A-share and HK stocks fell on Monday. Due to that the National Reserve Bureau will release its stocks of copper, aluminum and zinc, the commodity stocks fell sharply.

Will the stagnation come again in 2H2021?  The probability of stagnation in 2H2021 is low.Economies in developed countries would continue to recover given that most of the adults would be vaccinated in 3Q or 4Q this year. The recent data showed that entertainment and traveling demand has gone up quickly. In China while economic growth might slow down gradually in 2H2021, the inflation pressure is only in producer’s side. The consumer-side inflation is still yet to come. And it takes at least 6 months for inflation to transfer from producer’s side to consumer side. So China will not see stagnation either. Stagnation came up in the 1970’s due to multiple factors. Firstly, the Federal Reserve had injected big liquidity into the financial markets again and again. So the liquidity was quite abundant if not excessive. Secondly, the US was losing its competitive advantages in manufacturing and was faced with challenges to look for growth in economy. Thirdly, the oil crises led to oil and other related commodities shortage. Inflation expectation was pushed up by wage-cost spiral rise. The Federal Reserve injected liquidity after 2008 global financial crises and began to take back in the mid-2013. Before COVID-19 crises, it had raised interest rate for 10 times and brought Fed fund rate from 0.25% to the highest level 3.25%. This compared with 3-5% before 2008 financial crises. It also reduced its balance sheet from more than US$ 4 trillion to US$3.3 trillion. But before the financial crises, its balance sheet was only US$ 800 billion. We deem that liquidity abundance was comparable to that in the 1970’s. Let’s observe how the economy will evolve and whether there would be commodity shortage in 2H2021.

The US stocks fell on Monday. Tech stocks fell the most as market was nervous before the Federal Reserve Open Market Conference.

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