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周三抱團(tuán)股和有色股齊跌。A股和港股均延續(xù)前一交易日的跌勢(shì)。申萬(wàn)28個(gè)行業(yè)中僅4個(gè)上漲，分別為銀行、家用電器、房地產(chǎn)和建筑裝飾，均為低估值價(jià)值股，而抱團(tuán)股普跌，抱團(tuán)股集中的創(chuàng)業(yè)板指數(shù)下跌4%。港股12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中只有金融和公用事業(yè)業(yè)上漲，能源行業(yè)持平，其余9個(gè)行業(yè)下跌。因國(guó)儲(chǔ)拋售基本金屬，原材料行業(yè)領(lǐng)跌兩市。北上資金凈流出4.05億人民幣，南下資金凈流出26.4億港幣。5月工業(yè)增加值、社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額和固定資產(chǎn)投資的增速都低于預(yù)期。疫情導(dǎo)致的不確定性依然困擾經(jīng)濟(jì)，企業(yè)資本開(kāi)支和雇傭方面都相對(duì)謹(jǐn)慎，而最終的影響落到了消費(fèi)上，這也是疫情以來(lái)消費(fèi)持續(xù)低于預(yù)期的一個(gè)主要原因。

理性投機(jī)可不可取？所謂理性投機(jī)就是機(jī)構(gòu)投資者炒股票，薅羊毛。本應(yīng)踐行價(jià)值投資理念的機(jī)構(gòu)投資者也像散戶一樣炒股票不免讓人覺(jué)得驚訝。但A股市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)較大，這樣做也無(wú)可厚非。海外知名機(jī)構(gòu)投資者也有在A股炒某著名消費(fèi)股。在A股市場(chǎng)要適者生存。不過(guò)，散戶炒股票基本不看投資價(jià)值。機(jī)構(gòu)投資者炒股票還要以價(jià)值投資為名，這就有點(diǎn)讓人匪夷所思。短炒還用看價(jià)值嗎？另一方面，運(yùn)用資金優(yōu)勢(shì)炒股票似乎有操縱股價(jià)的嫌疑。機(jī)構(gòu)投資者如果能夠真正秉持價(jià)值投資理念的，就應(yīng)該選出低估值、有業(yè)績(jī)支撐的股票。順便說(shuō)一下：這樣的股票在A股有很多，能容納大資金。抱團(tuán)在幾十只市盈率高企的股票上既不是價(jià)值投資，也不符合股票市場(chǎng)規(guī)律。信用周期下行期，成長(zhǎng)板塊的估值應(yīng)該是被壓縮的。而硬靠著資金優(yōu)勢(shì)支撐估值，遲早有一天會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)不過(guò)是一廂情愿。特別是在通脹高企利率上升的環(huán)境下。歷史看，股市該來(lái)的調(diào)整遲到過(guò)但沒(méi)有缺席過(guò)。本來(lái)在較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間內(nèi)能夠完成的調(diào)整如果在較短的時(shí)間完成，那么調(diào)整就會(huì)十分劇烈。就如同周三在A股市場(chǎng)發(fā)生的情況。全球通脹上行，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)也將收縮流動(dòng)性。未來(lái)股市波動(dòng)可能還會(huì)不斷上演。你準(zhǔn)備好了嗎？

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)行動(dòng)勝于言語(yǔ)。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)點(diǎn)陣圖顯示2023年加息兩次，暗示其認(rèn)為通脹絕不是暫時(shí)的。美股和黃金大跌，國(guó)債收益率和美元大漲。通脹的長(zhǎng)期存在將改變以往低利率、低通脹的投資環(huán)境，成長(zhǎng)股將跑輸價(jià)值股。

Both A-share and HK stocks continued to fall on Tuesday. The group-holding stocks fell the most. Chinext Index fell 4.2%. The news that National Reserve Bureau would release its stocks of copper, aluminum and zinc continued to pressure thecommodity stocks. The industrial value-added, retail sales and fixed asset investment data in May came in lower than expected. The pandemic has impacted the willingness of business owners’ to invest in new capacity and to hire more people. The negative impact ultimately showed up in consumption. That’s why consumption has continuously fallen short of expectation since the pandemic. 

How to look at rational speculation?  That the institutional investors who should stick to value investment principles speculate in the stock market is called rational speculation. While it is understandable to do so as A-share is pretty volatile, it is misleading to label the behavior as value investment. As the institutional investors have big capital advantages it is a question whether they manipulate stock market by rational speculation. To stick to value investment, one should look for those stocks with low valuation and good fundamentals. With credit cycle going down the growth stocks’ valuation would be pressured and value stocks would perform well. With the liquidity being taken back the stock market would fluctuate more. Be prepared for that.

The Federal Reserve’s action speaks louder than words. The Fed dot plot chart indicated that Fed expects two rate hikes before the end of 2023. Also the Fed raised its inflation forecast up by 1 percentage point to 3.4% in 2021.  The Fed’s move showed that they are expecting a higher and lasting inflation rather than temporary. The US stocks and gold fell sharply while the treasury yield and the US dollar rose. We have indicated that the low-interest rate and low inflation investment environment has changed to high-interest rate and high inflation one. In this circumstance value stocks outperform growth stocks.

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