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上周（下同）全球普跌。全球16個國家和地區(qū)的重要指數(shù)中只有4個上漲，12個下跌。其中澳大利亞、中國臺灣、韓國和日本股票上漲，而美國道指、標普和俄羅斯指數(shù)股票跌幅領(lǐng)先。上證指數(shù)、深成指和恒生指數(shù)分別下跌1.8%、1.5%和0.1%。A股行業(yè)中，23個下跌，僅有5個上漲，分別是電子、國防軍工、通信、綜合和汽車，休閑服務(wù)、鋼鐵和有色金屬領(lǐng)跌。港股12個行業(yè)中僅有2個上漲，分別為工業(yè)和非必需消費業(yè)，而跌幅居前的行業(yè)為原材料、能源和地產(chǎn)建筑業(yè)。北上資金凈流出50億人民幣，南下資金凈流出24億港幣。

市場不相信美聯(lián)儲能夠退出流動性寬松政策。美聯(lián)儲上周鴿變鷹引起全球大部分股票市場下跌。但5年期隔夜指數(shù)掉期（隔夜指數(shù)掉期 Overnight Index Swap是將隔夜利率交換成為若干固定利率的利率掉期，是一家金融機構(gòu)利用手頭資金向另一家金融機構(gòu)借出隔夜貸款的利率）市場則反應(yīng)美聯(lián)儲不會退出。該指數(shù)掉期利率今年年初為2.4%，但在上周美聯(lián)儲議息會議時僅為1.94%。周五美聯(lián)儲著名鴿派布拉德發(fā)表鷹派言論時，僅為1.71%。利率期貨市場真是打臉美聯(lián)儲。市場認為美聯(lián)儲無法實際退出寬松的貨幣政策，一方面因為美國經(jīng)濟已負債累累，當前美國債務(wù)占GDP的比例超過100%，而且美國總統(tǒng)拜登還將2022年的財政預(yù)算定在6萬億美金，其中大部分將通過舉債來融資。另一方面，上一次美聯(lián)儲退出寬松的貨幣政策也僅是將聯(lián)邦基金利率提升到2.5%，而且不得不在疫情大規(guī)模爆發(fā)之前將利率下調(diào)到0。如果上一次全球金融危機之后，美聯(lián)儲無法退出寬松的貨幣政策，為什么這一次就可以退出呢？金融市場對貨幣政策的敏感性歷史來上從沒有這么高。美聯(lián)儲的資產(chǎn)負債表已是GDP的40%，支撐了資產(chǎn)價格的上漲，而消費者依靠股市的財富效應(yīng)加大支出來支撐經(jīng)濟。所以，任何股市的調(diào)整都會對美國經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生負面影響。股市的狂歡有可能會繼續(xù)。對利率敏感的行業(yè)最受益，如科技。但長期看，這會導(dǎo)致滯漲。通脹仍是一個威脅。因此，貴金屬、農(nóng)產(chǎn)品和大宗商品仍將勝出。而亞洲和歐洲的股市也將有較好表現(xiàn)。

美股上周五大跌。美聯(lián)儲官員認為加息有可能提前到2022年。

Last week most of the global stock indexes fell. 12 out of the 16 global major indexes fell while only 4 rose, which were Australia, China Taiwan, Japan and South Korea. DOW, SP 500 and Russia RTS Index fell the most. Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and Hang Seng Index fell1.8%, 1.5% and 0.1% respectively. In A-share 5 out of 28 sectors rose while the remaining 23 fell with electronic sector rising the most and non-ferrous metal falling the most. 2 out of 12 sectors in HK market rose with industrial sector rising the most. North-bound and south-bound capital net outflow was RMB5billion and HK$2.4 billion respectively.

Market predicts that the Federal Reserve (Fed) can’t exit from QE.  Last week Fed turned into hawkish from dovish. However, Overnight Index Swap (OIS) market did not expect that Fed could exit from QE. OIS rate was 2.4% earlier this year when long-run rate rose. It was 1.9% last week when the Fed Open Market Conference convened and 1.7% last Friday when James Bullard, Louisiana Chairman of Fed, who was famous for being dovish, turned into hawkish. The OIS market told Fed that they just did not believe they could exit QE. On one hand, the US is highly indebted with debt-to-GDP ratio is above 40%. Moreover, President Biden set fiscal budget at US$ 6 trillion for 2022, most of which would be raised via debt. On the other hand, the Fed only raised interest rate to 2.5% after 2008 global financial crises and had to cut it to zero due to the pandemic crises in 2020.Why should one assume that Fed can exit QE as it didn't accomplish it in the last crisis? As such the stock market can continue to enjoy the abundant liquidity,especially for rate-sensitive sectors such as technology along with Asian and European stocks. Yet inflation would still be there. And precious metal, commodities and agricultural products would perform well.

The US stocks fell sharply last Friday. James Bullard said that the Fed could raise interest rate in 2022 rather than in 2023. This triggered market sell-off and VIX index rose sharply. 

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