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牛市中的熊市。年初至今，申萬28個行業(yè)中20個上漲，8個下跌。這八個行業(yè)分別是家用電器、非銀金融、農(nóng)林牧漁、國防軍工、房地產(chǎn)、傳媒、商業(yè)貿(mào)易和通信。這些板塊在牛市里走出了熊市。這里面不乏白馬股，如格力電器和美的集團(tuán)，二者的股價年初至今分別下跌17.5%和25.4%。無論是格力還是美的年初至今都曾經(jīng)拋出巨量回購股份計劃，但難阻股價持續(xù)下滑。原因何在呢？過去兩年漲幅過大透支了估值。格力在2019年上漲了91%，2020年股價基本持平。而美的2020年上漲了73.6%。美的和格力當(dāng)前的靜態(tài)市盈率分別為17.6和12.8倍，均處在歷史較高水平。所以，未來股價的走勢還需要看基本面能否有較好的表現(xiàn)，否則估值還有很大的下調(diào)空間。當(dāng)然，下跌的股票并不完全是因為過去兩年漲幅過大，比如非銀金融、房地產(chǎn)、傳媒等。這些行業(yè)的股價2020年沒有什么表現(xiàn)。2021年股價持續(xù)調(diào)整，一方面是行業(yè)自身的原因，如傳媒，另一方面是受到政策的打壓，如房地產(chǎn)。但有的行業(yè)比如券商的持續(xù)低迷其實是反應(yīng)了資金的偏好。所以，這些持續(xù)走弱的板塊何時能再度走強(qiáng)受到多方面因素的制約，包括資金的風(fēng)險偏好，行業(yè)基本面的好轉(zhuǎn)以及政策的放松。對于那些市盈率已經(jīng)處在歷史較低水平的公司，可能在接下來會有較高的回報。杰里米·西格爾曾經(jīng)說過，投資于市盈率最低水平的公司，換句話說，投資于增長預(yù)期較溫和的股票的投資組合，遠(yuǎn)勝于投資于高價格、高預(yù)期的公司的投資組合。因此，對于那些漲勢如虹、似乎牛市永在的板塊的公司，可以采取回避的態(tài)度。

周一A股上漲，港股下跌，而美股大漲。中國人民銀行發(fā)文表示市場流動性充足，A股上漲，成長股漲幅居前，上證50跌幅居前。年初至今，上證50下跌5.95%，領(lǐng)跌A股指數(shù)；而創(chuàng)成長指數(shù)上漲16.82%,領(lǐng)漲A股。無論A股還是港股，周期股都跌幅居前，一些投資人認(rèn)為在中國政府的打壓和美聯(lián)儲收縮流動性的雙重壓力下，周期的行情已經(jīng)結(jié)束。美股大漲，道指創(chuàng)下三月以來表現(xiàn)最好的一天。美聯(lián)儲官員周一表示當(dāng)前的重要問題是收縮債券購買規(guī)模的時間和節(jié)奏。

The bear in a bull market. Year-to-date 20 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose with the remaining 8 sectors falling.These sectors are home appliance, non-bank financials, farming and fishery,military defense, property, media and commerce and trade. Take two stocks in home appliance as an example, Geli Appliance and Midea Group. Geli and Midea each saw their stock prices plunge by 17.5% and 25.4% despite that both of them have issued stock repurchase plan at a big scale. Geli and Midea is now valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8x and 17.6x, the relatively high levels in their history. Geli’s stock rose 92% in 2019 and remained athigh levels in 2020. Midea rose 73.6% in 2020. That should be the reason that both of them fell in 2021: the high-valuation combined with deteriorating fundamentals. Other sectors fell due to different reasons. Some are under policy pressure such as property. Others struggled with growth challenges due to sector development bottlenecks. But for those whose valuation has fallen to historical low levels, they might present good investment opportunities. Jeremy Siegel said in his book “The Future For Investors” that investment return from investing in a portfolio of low-valued stocks could achieve higher return than investing in a portfolio with high-valued stocks. The reason is that low valuation usually reflects low expectations and only a modest earnings growth could boost valuation. And the high valuation reflects high expectations and it turns out that earnings miss expectation in some cases. Hence, for those high-valued stocks whether their earnings growth can match with their valuation would be a key to their stock prices. 

A-share rose while HK stocks fell. The People’s Bank of China said that liquidity is abundant, which provides confidence to the market. SSE 50 Index fell the most while Chinext Momentum Index rose the most. Cyclicalstocks fell the most in both A-share and HK market.

The US stocks rallied. Reopening stocks and cyclical sectors rose the most.  

聲明：本市場點(diǎn)評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。