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如何選擇價值股？有一種觀點認為在價值股里選股比在成長股里選股更難，因為價值股覆蓋了好和壞的公司。這種觀點印證了我們在6月23日發(fā)表在楓瑞視點微信公眾號里的文章烏雞如何變鳳凰--論價值陷阱中所指出的，很多價值股其實是價值陷阱，有各種各樣的問題使所謂價值股的估值并不像表面看上去那么便宜。說到底，價值陷阱是毀滅價值的。要找到創(chuàng)造價值的股票，最終還是要看公司盈利增長的速度和發(fā)展前景。因此，價值股選股有一點跟成長股選股是一樣的，就是看公司未來成長性。但成長股通常估值較高，而價值股在危機或者企業(yè)出問題的時候估值都較低，反應投資人對其未來發(fā)展的低預期。此時如果投資者能夠買入并持有，就可以在未來乘著公司基本面改善的東風而獲得較好收益。但是，價值股通常都不會一步到達估值底部。當年，巴菲特買入華盛頓郵報，就用了三年的時間，股價在此期間下降了50%。所以，價值投資者經(jīng)常買在半山腰而不是絕對的底部，是因為當股價看似低估之后其實還有很大下跌空間。但當最后一個看空的人賣出股票后，股價就開始上漲了。所以，價值股里面選股很重要，買入時機也很重要。當然，如果你的持有期限也像巴菲特一樣是永遠，則買入時機就不用太計較了。有的投資人認為在成長股選股很容易，但是就如同我們在增長率陷阱中所指出的，投資者對成長股的高預期正式成長股收益落后于價值股的主要原因。就如同牛市里投資人往往虧錢一樣，成長股也會誘惑投資人買入，但因其估值太高而導致最后的收益不如人意。所以，挖掘價值股還是比較安全的投資策略。找一下那些還躺在角落里的價值股，說不定就是未來的白酒股。

周二A股和港股均上漲，美股漲跌不一。第五次藥品集采降價幅度在56%，與以往集采降價幅度基本一致。但受情緒影響，A股和港股醫(yī)藥板塊均小幅下跌。A股白酒股跌幅領(lǐng)先，山西汾酒下跌超8%。白酒股經(jīng)過連續(xù)幾年的上漲，股價泡沫化程度較高，需要回歸到與基本面相匹配的水平。美股納斯達克指數(shù)再創(chuàng)出歷史新高，道指和標普500小幅回落。市場認為美聯(lián)儲在平衡通脹過高和經(jīng)濟過熱之間走鋼絲繩。如果未來通脹和國債收益率走高，則市場將會面臨調(diào)整的壓力。

How to pick value stocks? Some investors think that it is more challenging to pick value stocks than growth stocks. The reason is that there are both good and bad companies in value stocks. This coincides with our view in “How the black chicken turns into phoenix” published in our official wechat—Maple Insights, in which we illustrate four types of value traps that destroy value. To find those companies that can create value the key is whether these companies can grow their earnings strongly in the future. Therefore, to find growth is one thing in common between value stocks and growth stocks. However, growth stocks usually enjoy high valuation. Yet value stocks would have much lower valuation when they encounter difficulties in growing earnings. For value investors they usually buy value stocks when the stocks become low-valued. But low-valued stocks still have a lot room to fall further. Take the example that Buffett invested in The Washington Post.He bought the stock for three years in a row and during the period the stock prices fell 50% maximum. So it is hard to buy a stock at the lowest point of stock price. But if your holding period is as long as forever like that of Buffett the timing to buy a stock would not have a significant impact on your investment return.  To pick growth stocks the one challenge is that their valuation is rather expensive.This would negatively affect investment return. So investing in a value stock would bear smaller risk than buying a growth stock.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose while the US stocks were mixed. The fifth national centralized purchasing of medicine concluded with the average medicine prices down by 56%, which is inline with the previous national centralized purchasing. Medicine sector in both A-share and HK market fell due to sentiment. Liquor stocks in A-share fell sharply. This sector has performed well over the last couple of years. Some stocks are in bubbles and need to fall to be in line with fundamentals. Nasdaq rose while SP500 and DOW fell slightly. Market is concerned that treasury yield would go up again.  

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負任何責任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風險，投資需謹慎。