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華爾街沒有暑假。約翰·加爾布雷斯在《1929年大崩盤》中描述了1929年前股市過度繁榮的種種表現(xiàn)，從為在股市低迷時(shí)為投機(jī)者提供杠桿資金的國(guó)民城市銀行董事局主席查爾斯·E·米切爾，到對(duì)鋼鐵股不懂裝懂的家庭婦女，從刊登在《婦女家庭報(bào)》上的文章《大家都能成為富人》，到屢次看空、屢次失敗的《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》，刻畫了一幅投機(jī)氛圍濃厚的股市眾生相。讓人印象深刻的還有美國(guó)參議院委員會(huì)詰問高盛公司的創(chuàng)始人之一薩克斯關(guān)于高盛在牛市期間創(chuàng)建的高盛貿(mào)易公司。該公司從事投資信托業(yè)務(wù)，即為投資人提供杠桿資金參與股市。其IPO價(jià)格為104美元，牛市崩盤幾年后該公司股價(jià)跌到了1.75 美元。華爾街沒有暑假，但到了1929年秋天就迎來了史上最嚴(yán)重的股市暴跌和經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條。雖然美國(guó)經(jīng)歷過1929年股市大崩盤，但并不能阻止1987年黑色星期一和2008年全球金融危機(jī)的發(fā)生。為什么呢？因?yàn)槿诵允窍嗤ǖ模瑹o論是生活在20世紀(jì)20年代還是80年代，抑或是21世紀(jì)。人類不曾從歷史中吸取任何教訓(xùn)，因?yàn)槲覀儧]辦法杜絕人性。近期，某熱門餐飲股股價(jià)被腰斬再腰斬，創(chuàng)始人坦誠(chéng)不能夠保證公司未來業(yè)績(jī)的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。該公司去年疫情剛結(jié)束就大干快上，大舉提升開店步伐。一年時(shí)間過去，發(fā)現(xiàn)過于密集開店造成翻臺(tái)率下跌、新開門店爬坡期過長(zhǎng)，而為了提高利潤(rùn)而對(duì)菜品加價(jià)、降低菜品質(zhì)量等舉措加劇了顧客的流失率。該公司在股價(jià)巔峰時(shí)對(duì)應(yīng)的市凈率接近40倍，而現(xiàn)在16倍的市凈率其實(shí)也不低。不過回望山巔，還是覺得40倍的市凈率真是不可思議。這種感覺就像在1929年股市崩盤之后的幾年，持有高盛貿(mào)易公司股份的投資人（如果還持有的話），怎么也無法想象這個(gè)公司股價(jià)曾經(jīng)高達(dá)100多美金。是的，有的時(shí)候在股市賺不到錢就是想象力不夠。

周四A股和港股均小幅上漲，美股再創(chuàng)新高。央行三個(gè)月以來首次加大逆回購(gòu)資金量，以緩解季末資金緊張局面。A股成交量連續(xù)5天超過萬億人民幣。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)拜登與兩黨達(dá)成基建刺激計(jì)劃。雖然刺激規(guī)模為1萬億美金，但是加上額外支出有可能達(dá)到2萬億美金。美股標(biāo)普500和納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)創(chuàng)出歷史新高。

There is no summer break in Wall Street. John Galbraith, the famous economist, presented a picture of a booming stock market before the big crash in 1929 in “The Great Crash 1929”. He depicted how the big shot and the common people behaved as well as those media that expected either a bull or a bear market. One part is about Goldman Sachs Trading Company, which was listed during the bull time before the big crash with IPO price at US$ 104 per share. Several years after the big crash, the stock was trading at US$1.75. There was no summer break in Wall Street in 1929. Yet the stock market soon saw the fiercest crash in history and the economy entered the most severe depression that ever happened. Although the US stock market experienced the big crash in 1929, it suffered the Black Monday in 1987 and the Great Recession in 2008. The reason behind is that human nature has never changed whether it was in the 1920’s, 1980’s or the 21st century. Recently a famous catering stock listed in HK saw its stock price fall by more than 70% over the last couple of months. The stock price boomed last year due to its big expansion plan all of China. But it turned out that this strategy was wrong as more new stores caused table turnover rate to drop and it took longer time for new stores to become profitable. Moreover, it raised products’ prices and lowered their quality, resulting in the customer loss. The company was valued at price-to-book (PB) ratio of 40x when its stock was at peak levels. Now it was valued at 16x PB, which is still pretty high.The founder of the company recently admitted that he did not expect a sustainable earnings growth in the near future. That’s quite true. A company can grow its earnings at a high speed for some time but not all the time.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose slightly while the US stocks rallied. The People’s Bank of China released liquidity via national debt reverse repurchasing to deal with  the liquidity demand at the end of June. President Biden stroke the infrastructure deal with a bipartisan group of senators. 

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