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大金融和地產(chǎn)板塊。金融中的保險、銀行和券商自新冠疫情發(fā)生以來分別上漲0.3%、17%和26%，而房地產(chǎn)下跌6%。而漲幅居前的旅游綜合、電源設(shè)備和醫(yī)療服務(wù)分別上漲219%、179%和169%，差距甚大。股價上漲有上漲的原因，下跌也有下跌的原因。作為傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)，大金融和地產(chǎn)板塊被認(rèn)為發(fā)展前景與新興行業(yè)相比沒有吸引力。確實，與新能源車的每年30%的增速相比，無論是大金融和地產(chǎn)板塊都無法實現(xiàn)如此高的業(yè)績增速。但估值水平其實也反應(yīng)了市場的預(yù)期。保險、銀行和券商板塊的靜態(tài)市盈率都處在歷史較低水平，分別為1.6、0.72和1.8倍，分別位于歷史上4.3%、8%和48%的分位。房地產(chǎn)靜態(tài)市凈率0.96倍，位于過去20年來0.05%的分位，基本上就是歷史最低值。所有的行業(yè)都曾經(jīng)經(jīng)歷過市場最悲觀的時刻以及最樂觀的時刻。白酒板塊也一樣。在2013年板塊估值最低時曾達(dá)到2.6倍，當(dāng)前為11.6倍，處在歷史96.2%的分位。悲觀和樂觀都反應(yīng)在股價里面了。二者的區(qū)別是如果前者業(yè)績有一點超預(yù)期，股價就會大幅上漲；而后者業(yè)績有點低于預(yù)期，股價就會大幅下跌。前者較戴維斯雙擊，后者較戴維斯雙殺。白酒也曾在塑化劑事件及限制公款消費后業(yè)績持續(xù)低迷。但2014年隨著業(yè)績好轉(zhuǎn)，股價迎來連續(xù)幾年的上漲。所以，行業(yè)都存在低迷期，大金融和地產(chǎn)會否一直低迷下去呢？在當(dāng)前較低的估值水平下，值得跟蹤。

上周全球股市多數(shù)上漲。上周全球16個主要國家和地區(qū)指數(shù)中14個上漲，資源國巴西和澳大利亞下跌。美股漲幅居前，市場從對美聯(lián)儲縮減債券購買規(guī)模的恐慌中緩解。受環(huán)球股市上漲影響，且中國人民銀行釋放流動性，A股和港股均上漲，深成指漲幅僅次于道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)，位居16個主要指數(shù)漲幅第二名。行業(yè)方面，A股鋼鐵、電氣設(shè)備和電子漲幅居前；港股原材料、醫(yī)療保健和能源漲幅居前。上周北上資金凈流入209.7億人民幣，為一個月以來周度資金凈流入最大；南下資金凈流入50.5億人民幣，結(jié)束了連續(xù)兩周的凈流出。上周五發(fā)布的5月份美國消費指數(shù)物價指數(shù)同比上漲3.4%，與市場預(yù)期一致，為1992年以來最大幅度上漲。

About the financial sector and property sector. Banking, brokerage and insurance sector along with property sector performed poorly in A-share and HK markets. Take the example of A-share,banking, brokerage and insurance sector rose 26%, 17% and 0.3% respectively from the low in March 2020 to last Friday. Property sector fell 6% during the same period. This compared with leisure service, power supply equipment and medi-care sector that rose 219%, 179% and 169% respectively. Market is pessimistic about the growth prospects of financial and property sector. Yet the valuation has fully reflected this pessimism. The bank, brokerage and insurance sector is valued at 0.72, 1.6 and 1.8x trailing-twelve-month price-to-book (TTW PB). This put them at the percentile of 8%, 48% and 4.3% in history respectively. Property sector is valued at 0.96x TTW PB, which put it at the percentile of 0.05% over the last 20 years. Every sector has ever experienced low times. The liquor sector was valued at 2.6x TTW PB when it suffered plasticizer affair and the sales drop from restrictions on consumption using public funds in 2013. From 2014 the liquor sector’s earnings growth rate improved gradually and the sector’s stock prices rose from then till now. It is valued at 11.6x TTW PB currently and at 96% percentile in history. Going forward the key is whether liquor sector would see its earnings grow at a high speed. If not, its valuation would come down sharply. As for financial and property sector, if their earnings can surprise to the upside, their valuation would increase along with earnings growth. Pay attention to these sectors’ development from now on.

Major indexes rose globally.14 out of 16 global major indexes rose last week with Brazil and Australia stock index falling. The panic from the Federal Reserve to take back liquidity has relieved to some extent. Both A-share and HK market rose last week as the People’s Bank of China released liquidity. Last week the north-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB21 billion, the largest weekly net inflow in a month. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK $ 5.1 billion, concluding two weeks net outflow in a row. 

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