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投機(jī)盛行意味著什么？在牛市的后期，投機(jī)盛行，IPO市場(chǎng)是一個(gè)鮮明的體現(xiàn)。根據(jù)彭博數(shù)據(jù)，今年上半年，全球IPO市場(chǎng)共募集金額3500億美金，超過(guò)去年下半年的2820億美金，創(chuàng)出歷史新高。一些熱門概念股漲幅驚人，如新能源概念股三峽能源兩周前上市，只用了10個(gè)交易日股價(jià)上漲就超過(guò)200%?？焓?021年2月份上市以來(lái)雖然股價(jià)從最高點(diǎn)下跌50%，但據(jù)其發(fā)行價(jià)仍有50%的上漲空間。當(dāng)然，也有一些表現(xiàn)較弱的股票。如百度也是在2021年2月份上市，但當(dāng)前股價(jià)較發(fā)行價(jià)已經(jīng)跌了40%。IPO市場(chǎng)的火爆反應(yīng)的是股票市場(chǎng)的熱度。在牛市中后期，投資人的情緒亢奮，一些傳統(tǒng)的估值方法已經(jīng)無(wú)法衡量熱門股票。投資人會(huì)找出各種理由支撐股價(jià)的上漲。這與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫時(shí)期對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的估值如出一轍。這是要小心的時(shí)候，而不是要勇敢的時(shí)候。特別是當(dāng)有投資人聲稱投資不需要看估值的時(shí)候，就更要小心了。通常這種言論發(fā)出的時(shí)候，熱門股票見(jiàn)頂也不會(huì)遠(yuǎn)。巴菲特在2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅之前對(duì)投資者說(shuō)：歸根結(jié)底，財(cái)富只能由企業(yè)創(chuàng)造出來(lái)，這是唯一的渠道。投資者作為一個(gè)整體想要變得富有，只有企業(yè)才能讓他們達(dá)到目的。巴菲特認(rèn)為許多互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司的股票估值實(shí)在是太荒唐可笑了。當(dāng)大量的參與者一起投入一個(gè)總數(shù)持續(xù)增加的游戲，就會(huì)創(chuàng)造出一種表面上的真實(shí)。這樣的情況也可能會(huì)持續(xù)相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間，但不可能永遠(yuǎn)持續(xù)下去。投機(jī)不可能持續(xù)，價(jià)值投資才可以。

周一A股和港股微跌，美股漲跌不一。疫情對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇股造成壓力，航空股和博彩股均下跌。因豬糧價(jià)比跌破1:5的預(yù)警現(xiàn)，國(guó)家將啟動(dòng)生豬收儲(chǔ)，養(yǎng)殖股大漲。但豬價(jià)并不會(huì)因此而止跌，其真正止跌需產(chǎn)能充分去化，而這不僅僅是散戶的退出，個(gè)別大型養(yǎng)殖場(chǎng)倒閉可能才是豬價(jià)止跌的信號(hào)。對(duì)于吉利汽車撤回A股科創(chuàng)板上市申請(qǐng)，美銀證券認(rèn)為主要原因是吉利汽車決定不收購(gòu)富豪汽車及其新能源車品牌Zeekr將可能有自身融資計(jì)劃。美股納斯達(dá)克和標(biāo)普500再創(chuàng)新高，道指在交通和能源股帶動(dòng)下下跌。美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率全線下跌，10年期國(guó)債收益率再次回落到1.48%，利好科技股。

What does it imply when speculation prevails? Speculation prevails when the bull market goes into the late part. According to Bloomberg, in 1H2021 there was a total of US$ 350 billion raised via IPO worldwide, surpassing the record US$282 billion in 2H2020. Some stocks performed quite well after IPO such as Three Gorges Energy, which rose 200% in just 10 trading days after it was listed two weeks ago. Some performed poorly such as Baidu, whose stock price fell 40% from its IPO price when it was listed in Feb.2021. The booming IPO market reflects investors’ sentiment, which is usually quite hot during the late part of a bull market. The traditional valuation methodology does not work in the hot market. Investors would find a lot of excuses to explain the high valuation of a hot sector or stock. It is actually a signal that danger is looming. Warren Buffett told investors that fortune can only be created by listed companies and investors can become rich only via investing in those companies that can create value. But one should look at valuation when he or she invests in the stock market. In the short run the stock market is a voting machine. In the long run it is a weighting machine. The game that all of the people chase a small number of stocks can last for some time but not for all the time. In summary speculation can not prevail forever but value investment can.

Both A-share and HK stocks fell slightly while the US stocks were mixed on Monday. Due to the spread of Delta variant COVID-19 worldwide gaming and airline stocks fell. China government announced that it would begin to purchase swine as reserve as the ratio of corn-to-pork price fell below the warning line. We judge that pork prices would only rebound when some big swine farm goes bankruptcy. Nasdaq and SP 500 reached another record high while DOW fell dragged down by energy and transportation stocks.  The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.48% once again and boosted tech stocks. Facebook won the antitrust cases that were brought up by the Federal Trade Commission. Stock rose 4% on Monday. 

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