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一個(gè)笑話。巴菲特曾經(jīng)在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅之前進(jìn)行過(guò)一次公開演講，他講了一個(gè)笑話。一個(gè)石油勘探者死后進(jìn)了天堂，圣彼得對(duì)他說(shuō)：“你符合所有的條件，但這里人以群分，石油勘探者的居住區(qū)已經(jīng)滿了，我沒(méi)有地方提供給你。”商人問(wèn)：“您不介意我說(shuō)五個(gè)字吧”。“可以。”于是商人把手?jǐn)n在嘴邊，大聲說(shuō)：“地獄里有油！”所有的石油勘探者都直往下沖，地方被騰空了。圣彼得說(shuō)好吧，現(xiàn)在這塊地方全都是你的了。商人停了一會(huì)兒，說(shuō)：“哦，不了，我還是跟著他們?nèi)サ鬲z吧，畢竟空穴不來(lái)風(fēng)。”這個(gè)笑話是巴菲特諷刺在股市里隨波逐流的投資群體。它永不過(guò)時(shí)，因?yàn)樗羁痰亟沂玖巳诵?。首先，股市里很多投資人并不是運(yùn)用自己的判斷力，或者缺乏判斷力，而買入或者賣出股票。即所謂追漲殺跌。其次，牛市或者熊市都會(huì)比預(yù)期的時(shí)間長(zhǎng)，因?yàn)榕まD(zhuǎn)集體的情緒需要很長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間。最后，對(duì)于真正的價(jià)值投資者，在某些時(shí)候堅(jiān)持自己的投資理念通常會(huì)遭遇較大的挑戰(zhàn)。巴菲特認(rèn)為自己在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫中的投資成績(jī)是不及格的，但是隨著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破裂，他的投資業(yè)績(jī)?cè)俅巫C明股神就是股神。愛德文·利弗莫爾在《股票大作手回憶錄》一書的最后寫道：沒(méi)有人能夠持續(xù)不斷的超越市場(chǎng)。不管一位交易員如何的富有經(jīng)驗(yàn)，虧錢的可能性總是存在，因?yàn)橥稒C(jī)不可能100%的安全。任何自然或人為的災(zāi)難都不如內(nèi)幕信息更容易摧毀一個(gè)交易員。無(wú)論在華爾街還是其他任何地方取得成功都沒(méi)有容易走的柏油馬路。所以，無(wú)論投資還是投機(jī)，都要對(duì)市場(chǎng)保持謙卑。在市場(chǎng)面前，任何人都是渺小的。

 周二A股和港股均下跌，美股微漲。港股周二是期指結(jié)算日，市場(chǎng)一般在期指結(jié)算日都波動(dòng)較大。恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中只有工業(yè)上漲，11個(gè)行業(yè)下跌，能源行業(yè)領(lǐng)跌，因油價(jià)下跌。A股申萬(wàn)28個(gè)行業(yè)中只有電氣設(shè)備、紡織服裝和化工上漲，25個(gè)行業(yè)下跌，國(guó)防軍工、通信和家用電器領(lǐng)跌。美國(guó)知名分析師和投資人擔(dān)心美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能落后于通脹而不得不在未來(lái)采取補(bǔ)救措施，而這可能導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。但當(dāng)前的5年和10年期損益平衡通脹率都已經(jīng)拐頭向下，意味著市場(chǎng)并不認(rèn)為通脹是長(zhǎng)期可持續(xù)的。

A joke. Warren Buffett told a joke at a speech before the internet bubble burst. The joke goes like this: An oil explorer went to the heaven after he passed away. St. Peter told him that there was no room for him because so many oil explorer were in heaven. He asked to speak five words and then said:there is oil in hell. All of the oil explorers went to the oil at once. OK. Sothis place is all for you, said St. Peter. Oh, no, I’d better go to the hell aswell. This joke is for the stock market and it reveals human nature deeply. Firstly, a lot of investors can’t judge whether the stocks are a buy or sell on their own. They make their decisions purely on the stock price’s up and downs. Secondly, the bull or the bear market can last much longer than expected as it would be hard to turn the hot market to cool and vice versa. Finally, value investors would be faced with big challenges to stick to their investment principles. Buffett considered his investment return unqualified as a professional investor. Yet he then achieved good return after the internet bubble burst and proved what he did in internet bubble was right. Edwin Lefevre wrote at the end of his famous book “Reminiscences of A Stock Operator” that no man can consistently and continuously beat the stock market. No matter how experienced a trader is the possibility of his making losing plays is always present because speculation cannot be made 100% safe. Inside tips will break a man more quickly than famine or what might be called normal accidents. There is no asphalt boulevard to success in Wall Street or anywhere else. This is so true. So be humble in the market all the time.

Both A-share and HK stocks fell while the US stocks rose slightly. June 29thwas the future settlement day for HK market. Market is usually down on these days. Energy sector fell the most in both A-share and HK market as oil prices went down. There is a lot of argument as to whether inflation is transitory or persistent. But the breakeven treasury yields have turned their corners, signaling that rates market does not expect inflation to last for a long time.  

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。