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上半年A股和港股表現(xiàn)落后。2021年上半年，在全球16個主要國家和地區(qū)的股票市場中，A股的上證指數(shù)和深成指漲幅分別排在倒數(shù)第一和第二名，恒生指數(shù)排名倒數(shù)第四。我們認為這主要是因為我國去年10月份流動性現(xiàn)拐點，導致A股估值無法提升。而港股表現(xiàn)落后主要是因為疫情對經(jīng)濟復蘇股的業(yè)績構(gòu)成壓力。但無論A股還是港股都不乏結(jié)構(gòu)性行情，A股創(chuàng)業(yè)板中的創(chuàng)成長指數(shù)漲幅為27%，穩(wěn)居全球之首。在A股28個行業(yè)中，19個上漲，9個下跌。漲幅超過10%的行業(yè)有7個，分別是電氣設備、鋼鐵、化工、采掘、綜合、有色金屬和電子，他們的上漲幅度在11.8-23.8%之間。這7個行業(yè)大部分為周期性行業(yè)。下跌超過10%的行業(yè)有三個，分別為家用電器、非銀金融和國防軍工。A股4373只股票中，2007只股票上半年取得正收益，占比46%，其中119只股票收益超過100%。這119只股票中除周期股外，大部分估值都非常高，屬流動性推動的上漲。港股恒生12個綜合行業(yè)中，除科技和必需消費下跌外，其余10個上漲，其中能源和醫(yī)療保健行業(yè)漲幅超過20%，綜合、工業(yè)、原材料和非必需消費行業(yè)漲幅在10.8-16.7%,而公用事業(yè)、地產(chǎn)建筑、電訊和金融行業(yè)漲幅在2.2-8.6%。無論上證指數(shù)還是恒生指數(shù)，從估值來看都處在全球較低水平。如遭遇全球股市調(diào)整，A股和港股無疑也會跌幅相對較小。而且從歷史來看，二者估值也都處在較低水平。即使下半年我國經(jīng)濟和企業(yè)盈利下行，股市相對調(diào)整幅度應該不會特別大。

周二A股上漲，港股下跌，美股漲跌互現(xiàn)。6月份官方制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)確認經(jīng)濟在緩慢下行。內(nèi)需走弱，而外需能否持續(xù)彌補內(nèi)需下行的壓力是未來需要關(guān)注的。港股博彩股上漲。據(jù)媒體報道，港澳有意在7月中旬恢復有限度通關(guān)，來回兩地無須檢疫。報道還指，香港方面希望與澳門通關(guān)后，與內(nèi)地商討通關(guān)工作可以更有利，有望三地通關(guān)。查理·芒格在接受CNBC采訪時稱贊中國在應對新冠疫情上采取的嚴格隔離措施以及對螞蟻金服IPO叫停的舉措。美股漲跌不一，市場關(guān)注周五發(fā)布的非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)。如超預期，則有可能促使美聯(lián)儲加快收緊貨幣政策的步伐。美元指數(shù)上漲到92.35，觸及一個月以來的高點。美聯(lián)儲收緊流動性會否造成2013年對新興市場的重大沖擊，我們之前在這次也許不一樣中對此做過分析。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose less than most of the major indexes worldwide in 1H2021. Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and Hang Seng Index rose 3.4%, 4.8% and 5.9% respectively in 1H2021, ranked as the 16th,15th and 13th among 16 major indexes globally in terms of rise range. The reason behind is that for A-share China took back liquidity from October 2020. While for HK stocks the reason is due to the re-surging of COVID-19,which caused recovery stocks to fall. Yet there were a lot of opportunities in 1H2021. For example, Chinext Momentum Growth Index rose 27% and was the best-performing index globally. In A-share 19 out of 28 sectors rose with cyclical sectors rising the most. And in HK market 10 out of 12 sectors rose with energy and medicine sector rising the most. Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index are valued at the low levels globally. Hence, even if global stock markets might correct in 2H2021 A-share and HK stocks would not fall too much broadly speaking. Both is also valued low in history, implying that they might have partly priced in economic and earnings slowdown in 2H2021.

A-share rose and HK stocks fell while the US stocks were mixed on Wednesday. China official Purchasing Manager’s Index in June showed that economy is slowing down gradually. Going forward it is worth observing whether the export demand can make up the domestic demand slowdown. HK gaming stocks rallied due to the news that Macau and HK will reopen to each other. Charlie Munger thought of highly what China did in dealing with COVID-19 and the decision to call off Ant Group IPO when he and Warren Buffett were interviewed by CNBC. The US dollar Index rose to one-month high. Market is watching the non-farm payroll in June. If this data is higher than expected, the Federal Reserve might hasten its steps to exit the QE policy. We have analyzed whether this time Fed’s tapering would cause market panic in“This time might be different” published in our official wechat “Maple Insight”on May 16th 2021.

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