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價(jià)值股將再度崛起。周二最堅(jiān)硬的抱團(tuán)板塊CXO大跌。國(guó)家藥監(jiān)局藥審中心日前發(fā)布《以臨床價(jià)值為導(dǎo)向的抗腫瘤藥物臨床研發(fā)指導(dǎo)原則》征求意見(jiàn)稿，市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為該指導(dǎo)原則將會(huì)打擊醫(yī)藥研發(fā)中的偽創(chuàng)新，增加創(chuàng)新藥上市的難度，間接利空為創(chuàng)新藥做研發(fā)和臨床試驗(yàn)的CXO板塊。但不可否認(rèn)的是CXO板塊經(jīng)過(guò)持續(xù)兩年多的上漲，很多公司都漲了10倍以上，當(dāng)前板塊估值處在極高的水平。因此，基本面的一點(diǎn)利空就對(duì)股價(jià)構(gòu)成重大利空。抱團(tuán)股中的新能源汽車(chē)和半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)仍舊如火如荼，而白酒和醫(yī)藥板塊則接連遭遇重挫。我們認(rèn)為抱團(tuán)股很可能要就此低迷一段時(shí)間：一方面，如果美國(guó)收緊流動(dòng)性，高估值板塊將會(huì)面臨較大壓力；另一方面，抱團(tuán)股二季度業(yè)績(jī)有待驗(yàn)證，如果業(yè)績(jī)不及預(yù)期，則股價(jià)將會(huì)進(jìn)一步調(diào)整。而與之相對(duì)應(yīng)的是，年初以來(lái)，價(jià)值股只是在3月份之前有所表現(xiàn)，之后再度低迷。但隨著二季度業(yè)績(jī)來(lái)臨，我們認(rèn)為價(jià)值股將會(huì)有較好表現(xiàn)。很多價(jià)值股在2020年遭遇疫情沖擊，業(yè)績(jī)不及預(yù)期。今年盡管疫情仍時(shí)有發(fā)生，但是，總體上要好過(guò)2020年同期水平。因此價(jià)值股的業(yè)績(jī)有很大概率超預(yù)期，同時(shí)價(jià)值股的估值仍處在歷史最低水平。因此，一旦業(yè)績(jī)超預(yù)期，股價(jià)就將會(huì)有較好表現(xiàn)。投資人對(duì)成長(zhǎng)股耳熟能詳，而對(duì)價(jià)值股卻有些陌生。其實(shí)，大金融、地產(chǎn)、上游周期等板塊都是價(jià)值股的典型代表。這些板塊中的大部分從新冠危機(jī)以來(lái)鮮有表現(xiàn)，個(gè)別板塊近期屢創(chuàng)新低，顯示市場(chǎng)對(duì)他們的預(yù)期極度悲觀。但未來(lái)認(rèn)為隨著業(yè)績(jī)提升，這些板塊的估值也將會(huì)有提升，價(jià)值股終將會(huì)有較好表現(xiàn)。

A股和港股均探底回升，美股漲跌不一。美股能源和銀行股下跌，而科技股上漲。10年期國(guó)債收益率下跌至1.36%，為2021年2月以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。美國(guó)6月供應(yīng)管理協(xié)會(huì)制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)低于預(yù)期，市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能正在接近峰值。A股和港股尾盤(pán)在金融股的推動(dòng)下回升。中辦國(guó)辦印發(fā)《關(guān)于依法從嚴(yán)打擊證券違法活動(dòng)的意見(jiàn)》，打擊違法犯罪活動(dòng)，嚴(yán)格執(zhí)行強(qiáng)制退市制度對(duì)股市是重大利好，將會(huì)有助于價(jià)值股的崛起。

The come back of value stocks is on the way. CXO sector fell sharply on Tuesday as Centre for Drug Evaluation of National Medical Products Administration issued a draft for comments of “Guideline Principles of Clinical Research and Development of Anti-oncology Medicines”.This draft could hit fake innovation in medicine R&D and make it hard for innovation drugs to be brought up to the market. Both are negative for CXO sectors. Yet in CXO sectors many stocks are ten baggers and their valuation is at an extreme level. Hence, a piece of negative news hit the sector hard. In group-holding stocks new energy and semi-conductor stocks are still rising well while spirits and medicine stocks have suffered big retreat recently. In the near future these group-holding stocks might perform poorly as the Federal Reserve could take back liquidity soon. Also with the second quarter earnings to be released some of those group-holding stocks’ earnings might disappoint the market. On the contrary, value stocks could come back again. On the one hand they have not performed well since March and valuation is still very low;on the other hand, their earnings in the 2nd quarter could surprise the market to the upside. Value stocks include those in financial, property and upstream cyclical sectors. Some stocks in these sectors have seen their prices fall to the lowest levels in years. Investors are pessimistic about their prospects. Yet this would be the best time to invest in these stocks.

A-share and HK stocks bottomed up while the US stocks were mixed on Tuesday. The June ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index in the US came in lower than expected. Market is concerned that the US economy might be peaking out. Energy and bank stocks fell while tech stocks rose in the US. The General Office of the Central Government Council and the State Council issued “The opinion about cracking down the illegal activities in capital market” on Tuesday. Delisting rules would be executed strictly. This is a big positive for A-share and would help value stocks to come back. 

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