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企業(yè)盈利的增長來自哪里？企業(yè)盈利的增長來源于兩個方面：收入增長和利潤率提升。收入增長來自于產(chǎn)品價格提升和銷量增加。去年以來，周期性行業(yè)的股價上漲就是由產(chǎn)品價格上漲推動的。而銷量通常是行業(yè)增長加上企業(yè)擴大市場份額的結果。利潤率提升來源于毛利率提升和費用率下降。而毛利率提升又來源于產(chǎn)品價格上漲和成本下降；而費用率下降則主要是由于企業(yè)經(jīng)營管理改善造成的。行業(yè)競爭到最后就是看誰成本低，成本低的活下來，成本高的被淘汰出局。每個行業(yè)都有周期，從萌芽期到成長期、成熟期，最后到達衰退期。所有的夕陽行業(yè)都曾經(jīng)成長過，所有的朝陽行業(yè)未來都會走向衰退。20年前，百貨行業(yè)是高增長行業(yè)，百盛百貨享有50-60倍的市盈率，投資人對它的未來發(fā)展前景保持很高的信心。如今，百貨公司估值在幾倍的市盈率。百貨行業(yè)在過去10年遭遇到電商的重大沖擊。同樣受到?jīng)_擊的還有電器零售行業(yè)，曾經(jīng)火爆一時的國美和蘇寧也在電商的沖擊下節(jié)節(jié)敗退。蘇寧近期也因為管理不善導致大股東出局。如何在股票市場抓住處于盈利增速最快時期的股票？對于成長股，從行業(yè)角度找到增速較快的行業(yè)。當前，中國很多行業(yè)都進入了成熟或者衰退期，只有為數(shù)不多的細分行業(yè)還處在成長階段，比如醫(yī)藥研發(fā)外包制造行業(yè)，就是CRO和CDMO行業(yè)。新能源汽車行業(yè)也處在增速較高的階段。這些行業(yè)的股票估值也都很高，市場給予他們的估值就是市場景氣階段的估值。當然，景氣過后，估值也一定會回落的，而回落的幅度也取決于他們的盈利增速下降的程度。股票市場也有很多細分行業(yè)曇花一現(xiàn)，高增長一兩年之后行業(yè)天花板就達到了。這些行業(yè)很難產(chǎn)生市值很大的公司，在這些行業(yè)也只能賺一時的錢。賺很多錢的行業(yè)通常都是在食品飲料和醫(yī)藥等行業(yè)，但這些行業(yè)估值也都處在較高水平，未來可能需要很長時間消化估值。

A股和美股上漲，港股下跌。美10年期國債收益率下降到1.296%，美國大型科技股上漲，能源和銀行股下跌。A股周三反彈，CXO板塊縮量上漲。港股科技股調(diào)整，滴滴出行對科技板塊的負面影響仍存。國務院提出為支持經(jīng)濟發(fā)展將結構性降準。

Where does earnings growth come from? A company grows its earnings from both top-line and bottom-line.Top-line growth comes from product price increase, sales volume expansion and gross margin improvement. For example: the upstream sectors grew their earnings fast in 1H2021 due to product prices increase. Sales volume expansion is usually boostedby sector growth and market share increase. Gross margin improvement is usually associated with technology improvement or cost efficiency. Bottom-line growth is driven by top-line growth and margin improvement. Apart from gross margin improvement, a company can cut off its sales expense, R&D and general administration cost to improve margin, that is to improve its management to a higher standard. Every sector has initial stage, growth stage, develop stage and decline stage. In 2005-06 when department store sector was in growth stage the listed companies such as Parkson Retail Group enjoyed price-to-earnings ratio as high as 50-60x. Now it’s valued at price-to-book ratio of 0.16x and has been losing money for years. With China’s economy slowing down most of the sectors have come into decline stage. Some small sectors could grow fast in a short period of time and soon find the growth ceiling. In these sectors it is hard to grow a big market-cap company. Market is now very optimistic about new energy sector, contract research organization (CRO） and contract developmentand manufacturing organization（CDMO）. Companies in these sectors are valued at high levels. Yet these sectors have ups and downs as well. When the sector growth comes down the listed companies valuation would come down as well.

A-share and the US stocks rose while HK stocks fell. The US 10-year treasury yield fell to 1.296% and mega-tech companies rose. CXO sector in both A-share and HK market rebounded with contracted volume. In HK market tech sector was still under pressure with Didi affair. The State Council said that to support economy it would cut down reserve ratio, which is positive for stock market. 

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