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下半年經(jīng)濟(jì)增速要看政策的力度。下半年美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能不能回收流動(dòng)性在很大程度上左右全球資產(chǎn)動(dòng)向。屆時(shí)，如果中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下行，我們認(rèn)為中國(guó)的貨幣和財(cái)政政策將會(huì)發(fā)揮更大的支持作用。2020年新冠疫情發(fā)生以來，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速領(lǐng)先全球，但我們的貨幣和財(cái)政政策都沒有像西方發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家那樣用盡全力。2020年歐美國(guó)家財(cái)政赤字都達(dá)到了雙位數(shù)，而中國(guó)的廣義財(cái)政赤字率只有8.2%。今年以來，貨幣和財(cái)政政策持續(xù)收緊。貨幣政策上，社融增量同比增速持續(xù)走低；財(cái)政政策上，專項(xiàng)債發(fā)行也不及預(yù)期。但未來隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力加大以及美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收回流動(dòng)性，市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為專項(xiàng)債的發(fā)行將會(huì)提速。而貨幣政策方面，廣義貨幣M2的同比增速已經(jīng)觸底回升，我們認(rèn)為3、4季度將會(huì)保持穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)的水平，同時(shí)不排除如經(jīng)濟(jì)超預(yù)期下行和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)超預(yù)期回收流動(dòng)性的前提下，貨幣和財(cái)政政策超預(yù)期發(fā)力。我國(guó)6月進(jìn)出口數(shù)據(jù)再超預(yù)期，反應(yīng)國(guó)外的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)仍然強(qiáng)勁；進(jìn)口增速環(huán)比下行主要是去年的基數(shù)抬升造成的。

美國(guó)6月份消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)上漲再超預(yù)期。美國(guó)6月份消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比上漲5.3%，超出市場(chǎng)預(yù)期的4.9%，創(chuàng)下2008年8月份以來的最快漲幅。因去年6月份的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)已經(jīng)不是一個(gè)低基數(shù)，因此，當(dāng)前價(jià)格的上漲說明通脹處在較高水平。環(huán)比數(shù)據(jù)可以不受去年低基數(shù)的影響。除去食品和能源的核心消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)4-6月份平均每月上漲0.8%，意味著年化10.1%的增速，這無論如何都是一個(gè)很高的數(shù)據(jù)。通脹是暫時(shí)的還是持久的仍是當(dāng)下爭(zhēng)論的焦點(diǎn)。對(duì)于那些認(rèn)為通脹是暫時(shí)的，6月份的數(shù)據(jù)也提供充分的例證。占消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)1/3的二手汽車和卡車的價(jià)格6月份環(huán)比5月份上漲了10.5%，而這主要是由于疫情打斷供應(yīng)鏈導(dǎo)致芯片等生產(chǎn)汽車的關(guān)鍵零部件短缺所造成。如果剔除掉二手車的價(jià)格上漲，則6月份的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)環(huán)比5月份上漲0.5%，而核心消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)將會(huì)上漲0.4%。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾將于周三和周四在國(guó)會(huì)作證，市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)他仍會(huì)堅(jiān)持通脹是暫時(shí)的說法，至于暫時(shí)會(huì)持續(xù)多久仍不可知。因美國(guó)6月通脹數(shù)據(jù)超預(yù)期，美股市場(chǎng)從高位回落。

China’s economic growth in 2H2021 would largely depend on fiscal and monetary policy. When and how the Federal Reserve takes back liquidity wouldaffect global financial assets. China’s fiscal and monetary policy would becomemore proactive if China’s economy slows down more than expected and the Fed takes back liquidity earlier than expected. In 2020 China’s broad fiscal ratio of deficit was 8.2% compared with double-digit of ratio of deficit in the western developed nations. The People’s bank of China (PBOC) began to take back liquidity in 2H2020. Since the beginning of 2021 fiscal policy has been tight. The issuance of special bond has lagged behind schedule. In 2H2021 the issuance of special bond will hurry up to prevent the economy from sliding too fast. Moreover, money supply will grow steadily in 2H2021, as mentioned by the PBOC  recently. Hence, it is no need to worry too much about the Fed’s tapering in2H2021. The June export and import data in China was above expectation.

June CPI grew higher than expected in the US. Total CPI rose 5.4%in June after rising 5% in May, which was the fastest increase from August 2008. It is noticeable because June 2020 was not a low base as May 2020. Month-on-month comparison is a better reading as it excludes base effect. From April to June CPI increased at an average 0.8% per month, which translates into 10.1% annually. Hence,whether inflation is transitory or persisting is still a focus in the market. Forthose arguing that inflation is transitory the used car and truck prices provides support. In June the used car and truck prices increased 10.5% from May mainly due to the supply chain disruption. The used car and truck prices  ccount for one third of CPI. Excluding used vehicle prices, CPI would haverisen 0.5% and 0.4% in June from May. The Fed chairman Powell will testify before the congress on Wednesday and Thursday. Market expects that he maintains that inflation is transitory. Though it is unknown how long transitory inflation would last.  The US stocks retreated from record high. The 10-year treasury yield went up. 

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