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白馬股不香了嗎？上證50指數(shù)中的50只權(quán)重股都是所謂白馬股。近期，這些白馬股迭創(chuàng)新低引發(fā)市場的關(guān)注。在這50個(gè)權(quán)重股中，權(quán)重最大的是貴州茅臺，占比15.8%，前10大權(quán)重股合計(jì)權(quán)重占指數(shù)的57%。今年以來前10大權(quán)重股表現(xiàn)較好的僅有隆基股份和藥明康德，年初以來分別上漲33%和44%。而其他八只股票要么下跌要么持平。其中跌幅較大的有恒瑞醫(yī)藥、中國平安、中信證券和萬科企業(yè)，年初以來分別下跌35%、32%、20%和19%。貴州茅臺年初至今股價(jià)是持平的。無論中國平安還是萬科企業(yè)，其估值都處在歷史較低或者最低的水平。為什么這些公司的股價(jià)表現(xiàn)如此疲弱呢？主要原因是基本面存在較大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。但是基本面的弱勢其實(shí)已經(jīng)反應(yīng)到股價(jià)里了。如果未來基本面有好轉(zhuǎn)，股價(jià)將會有較好表現(xiàn)。當(dāng)然，上證50的內(nèi)部分化其實(shí)是今年A股市場分化的一個(gè)體現(xiàn)。今年以來漲幅最高的行業(yè)是化工，上漲28.8%；而跌幅最大的行業(yè)是非銀金融，下跌19.8%?；す傻纳蠞q主要是新能源汽車相關(guān)個(gè)股推動的，而非銀金融中無論保險(xiǎn)還是券商今年的表現(xiàn)都不佳。保險(xiǎn)板塊因?yàn)楸ＹM(fèi)增速不及預(yù)期，行業(yè)處在低迷期。但券商板塊業(yè)績增速其實(shí)并不差，但一直被市場所拋棄。如何看待這種現(xiàn)象呢？這與投資者結(jié)構(gòu)有很大關(guān)系。A股市場中的個(gè)人投資者眾多，同時(shí)基民也很多。無論個(gè)人投資者還是基民都是趨勢投資者。市場上漲或者基金凈值上漲才會入市。因此，上漲的板塊似乎永遠(yuǎn)有上漲的動力；而下跌的板塊永遠(yuǎn)有殺跌的動力。但是，只要是趨勢就會有逆轉(zhuǎn)的那一天。一旦趨勢逆轉(zhuǎn)，無論上漲還是下跌也都會非常劇烈。所以，做好心理準(zhǔn)備，市場有可能會發(fā)生巨震。

美聯(lián)儲將會維持當(dāng)前貨幣政策。美聯(lián)儲主席鮑威爾認(rèn)為當(dāng)前通脹還是短暫的，未來將會趨于平穩(wěn)。但如果通脹高于預(yù)期，美聯(lián)儲將會調(diào)整貨幣政策。就業(yè)達(dá)到目標(biāo)仍然需要比較長的時(shí)間，因此削減債券購買可能也要等一段時(shí)間。鑒于美聯(lián)儲的鴿派立場，道指和標(biāo)普500上漲，而納指下跌，10年期國債收益率下降。A股和港股因美國6月通脹超預(yù)期擔(dān)憂美聯(lián)儲收緊流動性而下跌，新能源相關(guān)板塊跌幅居前。

Blue chips did not perform. SSE 50 Index fell to new lows year-to-date (the same below). This index is composed of 50 blue-chip stocks. Kweichow Moutai has the largest weighting at 15.8%. The top-ten stocks contribute 57% of  the index weighting. Among the top-ten stocks only 2 stocks, i.e., Longi Green Energy Technology and Wuxi Apptec performed well. Wuxi Apptec rose 44% and Longi Green Energy rose 33%. The remaining 8 either fell sharply or was flat. Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceutical, China Ping’an, CITIC Securities and Vanke Property fell the most at 35%, 32%, 20% and 19% respectively. Some of these stocks are faced with challenges to grow their earnings such as insurance stocks. Others are faced with valuation contraction despite good earnings growth such as brokerages. While the divergence in SSE 50 Index is obvious, it actually reflects the broad market. In A-share the best-performing sector rose 28.8% while the worst-performing sector fell 19.6%.The reasons behind is that most of the individual investors and those buy mutual funds are trend-followers. They will chase those stocks and funds that perform well. This has caused the phenomenon that the better performance of the funds or stocks the more money come in and the worse performance the more money come out. Yet with the valuation of those stocks that performs well reaching the peak levels and that of those stocks that perform poorly reaching the historical low levels the divergence would narrow. Once this happens the rise or fall of stocks would be very sharp. Better be prepared for this.  

The Federal Reserve remained dovish. Fed chairman Powell said that the inflation would moderate after being at high levels for some time and the Fed would not taper until employment made progress. DOW and SP 500 rose while Nasdaq fell slightly. The 10-year treasury yield fell at the Fed’s dovish tone.Both A-share and HK stocks fell as June inflation in the US was higher than expected and market concerned that the Fed would take back liquidity earlier than expected.  New energy sector fell the most. 

聲明：本市場點(diǎn)評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。