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Delta病毒對股市是利空嗎？截止上周五美國新冠新增病例較前一周7天平均上漲了67%達(dá)到26448例，死亡病例上漲26%達(dá)到273例，美股大跌。美國前FDA主任認(rèn)為美國有可能低估Delta病毒造成的傳染情況，原因是已打過新冠疫苗的人不會再去做測試，而沒打疫苗的人都把COVID-19看成是一個(gè)普通感冒，更不會去做測試。根據(jù)美國疾控預(yù)防中心數(shù)據(jù)，美國48%的人口已經(jīng)完全免疫，56%的人口至少接種了一劑疫苗。65歲以上人群中79%已經(jīng)完全免疫，89%接受了一劑新冠疫苗。但根據(jù)華盛頓郵報(bào)和ABC新聞聯(lián)合進(jìn)行的抽樣調(diào)查顯示：29%的美國人認(rèn)為他們不太可能接種疫苗，其中20%認(rèn)為他們絕對不會接種疫苗。所以，美國距離80%的群體免疫還有很長的一段路要走。這對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)和股市意味著什么？從巴西和印度的情況看，有可能是壞消息變成了好消息。這兩個(gè)國家因?yàn)樵馐蹹elta病毒侵襲，股市都大幅回落之后又大幅上漲。從這兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)情況看，小公司和窮人受疫情沖擊較大，而大公司反而借此機(jī)會降低成本和提升市場份額。能夠上市的企業(yè)一般都是規(guī)模較大的企業(yè)。另一方面，疫情的再次爆發(fā)促使中央銀行繼續(xù)維持寬松的貨幣政策。印度儲備銀行，即印度的中央銀行，將基準(zhǔn)利率保持在4%的歷史低位，以促進(jìn)借款和建筑活動?；氐矫绹?yàn)镈elta病毒導(dǎo)致的新增病例上升，洛杉磯市加強(qiáng)了防控舉措，即在室內(nèi)需要戴口罩。根據(jù)美國FDA前主任，美國大多數(shù)地方都不會重新加強(qiáng)防控，因?yàn)椴粫腥酥С诌@種舉措。對疫情有顧慮的人都打疫苗了，而沒有打疫苗的人都是對疫情不在乎的人。所以，美國未來疫情很有可能會加劇。參照巴西和印度的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，疫情對經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇不利，但是會拖延美聯(lián)儲退出的步伐。如果疫情一而再、再而三，美聯(lián)儲何時(shí)能退出寬松的貨幣政策就是未知數(shù)了。也許像日本一樣再也退不出來。

A股和港股小幅上漲。港股表現(xiàn)好于A股，主因應(yīng)是超跌反彈。A股內(nèi)部估值差異達(dá)到極限，熱門板塊接連調(diào)整，市場風(fēng)格面臨切換。外資對中國政府整治互聯(lián)網(wǎng)平臺公司有較大擔(dān)憂，認(rèn)為這會壓低這些公司的估值。

Is Delta variant a negative to stock markets?  The seven-day average of new daily infections standing at 26,448, up 67% from a week ago according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. The weekly average of new daily deaths is up 26% from a week ago, to 273. As of Friday, 48.3% of the country’s population was fully vaccinated and nearly 56% had received at least one dose,according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention （CDC）. More than 79% of people age 65 and up are fully vaccinated and nearly 89% have had at least one dose, according to the CDC. But accordingto a survey by the Washington Post and ABC news, 29% of respondents said thatthey were not likely to get vaccinated. Among it 20% said they would not be vaccinated definitely. Hence, it is still a long way for the US to become herd immunity as it requires 80% of population to be vaccinated. However,Delta variant is not necessarily bad news for stock markets from what happened in Indian and Brazil. Both Indian and Brazil suffered sharp fall of stock markets due to the surging COVID-19 cases caused by Delta variant. Yet both countries’ stock market registered strong bounce back after COVID-19 cases peaking out. On one hand the pandemic hit the poor and the small businesses harder than those bigger ones, which took the opportunities to cut costs and take more market share; on the other hand the central banks would have to maintain the easing policy to boost economy. Take India as an example, the India Reserve Bank kept benchmark interest rate at historical low 4% to help lending and construction activities. So if Delta variant spread out in the US the Federal Reserve might have to maintain its QE policy for a longer time than expected.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose last week. HK market rose strongly bouncing back from low levels. Both A-share and HK market saw the divergence of valuation among sectors came to an extreme, meaning that the market style might change soon. 

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