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港股疲弱。從2021年4月20日，即印度疫情爆發(fā)的時(shí)間點(diǎn)到7月20日，在全球16個(gè)主要國(guó)家和地區(qū)的指數(shù)中，恒生指數(shù)按漲幅排名倒數(shù)第二，在該區(qū)間（下同）下降6.6%，僅好于日本的下跌7.7%。在恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中，僅有兩個(gè)行業(yè)上漲，分別是醫(yī)藥生物和公用事業(yè)，分別上漲10%和1%。在下跌的10個(gè)行業(yè)中，7個(gè)行業(yè)的跌幅在5%以上。跌幅居前的行業(yè)是科技、地產(chǎn)建筑和綜合，分別下跌12%、10.9%和9.4%。港股從去年4季度到1季度表現(xiàn)較好，但是春節(jié)之后受A股下跌帶動(dòng)以及港府征收印花稅的影響，表現(xiàn)弱勢(shì)。4月下旬印度疫情爆發(fā)后，港股一路下行，7月份以來(lái)甚至連續(xù)8天下跌。反觀印度，在此期間上漲8.8%，領(lǐng)漲全球16個(gè)主要國(guó)家和地區(qū)。港股如此疲弱的一個(gè)原因是美元指數(shù)走強(qiáng)。美元指數(shù)在2021年5月25日達(dá)到低點(diǎn)89.6685之后開(kāi)始一路上行，至7月20日上漲至92.9764，近2個(gè)月時(shí)間上漲3.69%。我們?cè)凇陡酃擅髂甏蟾怕逝苴AA股》中指出，港股跑贏A股通常是在美元貶值的時(shí)候，這種情況下，資金會(huì)從美國(guó)市場(chǎng)流入新興市場(chǎng)，而港股估值較低，通常最先受益。而當(dāng)美元指數(shù)走強(qiáng)時(shí)，情況就恰恰相反。資金最先流出港股，回到美國(guó)本土市場(chǎng)。第二個(gè)原因是新冠疫情阻礙了經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。港股價(jià)值股占比較高，很多是受益于經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的。但是新冠疫情對(duì)這些板塊構(gòu)成了較大沖擊，無(wú)論是博彩還是航空，都遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有恢復(fù)到2019年同期的水平，也低于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期的水平。這些困境中的公司似乎永遠(yuǎn)也走不出困境，這也對(duì)港股造成了很大的壓力。再次，港股科技股去年表現(xiàn)全球領(lǐng)先，漲幅媲美納斯達(dá)克和A股的創(chuàng)業(yè)板。但今年以來(lái)，因?yàn)楸F(tuán)股的瓦解疊加中國(guó)政府對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)平臺(tái)企業(yè)的整治，該板塊一蹶不振，領(lǐng)跌港股主要指數(shù)。最后，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)政府從5月份以來(lái)打壓大宗商品價(jià)格，相關(guān)的原材料板塊也走勢(shì)低迷。港股走強(qiáng)一方面需要市場(chǎng)跌出價(jià)值，我們認(rèn)為當(dāng)前估值已經(jīng)具有吸引力。另一方面也需要外部的催化劑，如美元走弱或者我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇超預(yù)期。當(dāng)然中美關(guān)系改善也是一個(gè)重要催化劑。

周二A股和港股均探底回升。A股微跌，港股跌幅近1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，符合我們的判斷。美股和歐洲股市均從低點(diǎn)反彈，大宗商品價(jià)格回升。

The HK market has been weak since April. From April 20th to July 20th (the same below) Hang SengIndex fell 6.3%, ranked as the 15th among the 16 major global indexes. Nikkei Index of Japan fell 7.7%, the worst performer out of 16 major indexes. Only 2 sectors,ie. healthcare and utilities sector, rose out of 12 Hang Seng sectors. Among the 10 falling sectors 7 fell more than 5%. Tech, property and conglomerate fell the most at 12%, 10.9% and 9.4% respectively. In comparison Sensex30 of India rose 8.8%, the best performer among the 16 major indexes despite that Delta variant caused COVID-19 pandemic to resurge in India in mid-April. So why HK market was so weak? The first reason is that US dollar has been appreciating since the end of May. In “The HK market would likely outperform A-share in 2021” we found that when US dollar depreciates capital would flow to emerging markets. HK usually benefits more than any other market due to its low valuation. Yet when the US dollar appreciates the capital would flow back to the US and HK is the first market that capital exits. From the end of May the US dollar index rose 3.7% and above 93 on July 20th for the first time in two months. The second reason is that the pandemic has hampered economic recovery. Stocks associated with economic recovery comprises a big component of the HK market. These companies’earnings were below expectation and hence their stock performance. The last but not the least is that Chinese government took measure to control inflation which put commodity prices under pressure. Raw material sector fell sharply. When would HK market perform again? The first is that the market falls to a level with deep value, which we believe it has done. The second is that it needs catalysts, such as better-than-expected economic recovery and US dollar depreciation. Any improvementin Sino-US relationship could drive the market up.

Both A-share and HK market bottomed out on Tuesday. The US and European market also rebounded from a big sell-off on Tuesday.

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