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成長股估值處于歷史高位。年初以來創(chuàng)成長指數(shù)是A股所有指數(shù)中漲幅最高的。截止2021年7月21日，上漲31.6%。創(chuàng)成長指數(shù)包括50只創(chuàng)業(yè)板個股，其中前10大權(quán)重股占創(chuàng)成長市值的73.6%。前十大權(quán)重股分別是寧德時代（權(quán)重為17.2%，下同）、東方財富（13.8%）、愛爾眼科（9.1%）、億緯鋰能（7.4%）、卓勝微（7.2%）、匯川技術(shù)（6.4%）、愛美客（3.6%）、陽光電源（2.9%）、智飛生物（2.88%）和歐普康視（2.76%）。這10大權(quán)重股中靜態(tài)市盈率最低的是東方財富，60倍；最高的是愛美客，394倍。創(chuàng)成長指數(shù)總體靜態(tài)市盈率為84.8倍，處在歷史上86.7%的分位。當前估值水平低于2020年7月和2021年2月高點的估值水平，創(chuàng)成長指數(shù)在前述兩個時間點的靜態(tài)市盈率分別為102.7和95倍。創(chuàng)成長指數(shù)分別從前兩次的高點回落18.7%和29.8%。無論是電動車還是醫(yī)美或者光伏板塊，當前都處在情緒比較熱的階段，市場有可能隨時發(fā)生調(diào)整。將創(chuàng)成長指數(shù)與銀行指數(shù)的估值進行對比，可以發(fā)現(xiàn)創(chuàng)成長對銀行指數(shù)的估值比率已經(jīng)達到2021年來的高點(圖一）。當前位置該比值為12.5，超過2021年1月下旬的高點12。銀行股是價值股的典型代表。這也意味著成長對價值的估值達到了較高水平。全球來看，價值股在過去15年跑輸成長股。成長股的盈利增速總是高于價值股，問題是高多少和投資人支付的價格是多少。根據(jù)有關(guān)機構(gòu)對全球2000只股票的加權(quán)平均統(tǒng)計，成長股從1990年到2021年6月30日，每年比價值股的盈利增速高2.6個百分點。所以，盈利增速并沒有差太多。成長股的估值貴主要是投資人對他們的盈利預(yù)期過高造成的。而根據(jù)杰里米·西格爾在《投資者的未來》中所指出的：投資收益來自預(yù)期差，即企業(yè)實際業(yè)績增速與預(yù)期業(yè)績增速之差。對于成長股而言，因為預(yù)期高，所以估值很高，但是實際上經(jīng)常會有令投資人失望的股票。歷史上看，有成長股股價下跌而引發(fā)市場危機的例子，最典型的就是2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破裂。

圖一：創(chuàng)成長指數(shù)與銀行指數(shù)靜態(tài)市盈率比值

數(shù)據(jù)來源：WIND

周二A股強勁反彈，港股微跌。歐美股市繼續(xù)大幅反彈。經(jīng)過周二和周三兩天的反彈，美股收回周一的全部跌幅。經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇股引領(lǐng)股市上漲。10年期國債收益率上漲8個基點達到1.29%，美元指數(shù)從93高位回落，原油價格回升到70美金每桶以上。

Growth stocks’ valuation to value stocks reached a new high. The best performing index in A-share is Chinext Momentum Growth Index, which rose 31.6% year-to-date. The top-ten weighting stocks in terms of market cap comprise 73.6% of the index. The biggest weighting stock is Contemporary Amperex Technology, which takes 17.3% of the index weighting. East Money Information is the cheapest stock among the top 10 at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTW PE) of 60x while Imerk Technology is the most expensive at TTW PE of 394x. Chinext Momentum Growth index is valued at TTW PE of 84x, which put it at 86.4% percentile since it was set up in Jan. 2019. This compared with 102.7x and 95x in July 2020 and Feb. 2021, the previous two highs for the index. The index then corrected close to 20% and 30% respectively from these two highs. Moreover, the ratio of Chinext Momentum Growth Index TTW PE to that of bank sector also reached a new high in 2021. The ratio was 12.5x, higher than 12x at the end of Jan. this year but lower than 14x in July 2020. According to a statistic on 2000 global stocks the weighted average earnings growth rate of growth stocks is 2.6 percentage point higher than that of value stocks on annualized basis from 1990 to June 30th 2021. In a word the growth stocks only grow a little faster than value stocks. The high valuation of growth stocks is due to the high expectation of investors. Jeremy Siegel pointed out in his famous book “The future for investors” that investment return is determined by the gap between expectation and actual earnings growth.For growth stocks it frequently turns out that the actual earnings growth is lower than expected. Hence, when growth stocks correct the impact to the market is usually quite big. A case in point is the internet bubble burst in 2000.

A-share rose and HK market fellslightly. The US and European market continued to rebound strongly and most of them recouped the losses on Monday after the rally on Tuesday and Wednesday.

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