精品网曝门白浆一区二区三区_国产精品线在线精品国语_亚洲国产三级在线观看看_日本在线一区二区三区免费观看_亚洲成a人片在线观看无遮挡_久久99精品久久久久婷婷_精品国产aⅴ_蜜臀av电影在线观看_欧美一区二区三区四区在线观看_狠狠色丁香婷婷久久综合考虑

中國老百姓的錢都花在了哪里。上周課外培訓(xùn)行業(yè)受到政策的強力打壓。根據(jù)券商的測算：如果從小學(xué)1年級到高中3年級全部課外培訓(xùn)都不讓在周末和寒暑假開展的話，則上市的K12培訓(xùn)機構(gòu)46-80%的收入就沒有了。年初以來，培訓(xùn)類上市公司的股價最大跌幅達到97%，基本上反映了政策的嚴厲程度。投資人會很疑惑: 明明年初還是朝陽產(chǎn)業(yè)，怎么到了年中就成了夕陽產(chǎn)業(yè)了？其實產(chǎn)業(yè)還是在的，但是過度商業(yè)化之后就變成了讓老百姓不能幸福的行業(yè)了。教育、醫(yī)療和房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)被稱作中國老百姓的“新三座大山”，主要是因為這些支出占老百姓支出的比例過高。根據(jù)中國統(tǒng)計局，我國城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭個人消費支出中，醫(yī)療支出占比從1993年的2.7%上漲到2019年的8.1%，26年間占比上漲了3倍。住房支出占個人支出比例從1993年的6.6%上漲到24.2%，26年間占比上漲了3.7倍。教育支出沒有單獨的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)。從個人感受看，這個支出也是剛性的。雖然我國人均GDP達到1.1萬美金，但是城鎮(zhèn)居民花在食品上的支出仍占個人全部支出的27.6%。加上住房支出，吃和住合計占個人支出比例達到51.8%，再加上醫(yī)療支出和消費支出，估計中國老百姓大概80%的錢花在了維持基本的生活和發(fā)展需求上。而美國個人在食品和住宿上的支出占全部個人支出的比例僅為5.75%，醫(yī)療支出為16.4%，在教育上的支出沒有單獨的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，即使教育支出跟醫(yī)療支出占比相當，也比中國老百姓在吃、住、醫(yī)療和教育上的支出占比低很多。

外資并未從香港大規(guī)模撤出。隨著中國政府對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)平臺和教育行業(yè)的整治，港股的科技股以及教育股大幅下跌。港股也從6月底至今表現(xiàn)疲弱，但從港幣對美元匯率來看，外資并沒有明顯的撤出。2020年4月到2021年2月，港幣對美元匯率多次處在強方兌換區(qū)間，港府不得不入市買入美元，賣出港幣。從2021年2月底，港幣對美元匯率開始走軟，到2021年4月達到7.785高點之后港幣開始重新走強。近期中美圍繞香港不斷有針對性的制裁出臺。但美方又積極尋求同中方開展對話，本周中美將在天津舉行高層對話。中美關(guān)系對香港股市有較大影響。2019年和2020年港股市場表現(xiàn)疲弱，跟中美關(guān)系惡化有很大關(guān)系。當前港股經(jīng)過連續(xù)調(diào)整，很多板塊和個股估值都回落到很有吸引力的區(qū)間，具備投資價值。

Chinese consumers’ burden is heavy. The policy that targets after-school training was a big hit to those listed training companies in both HK and Nasdaq. Some investors are bewildered as to why the training sector, which was a promising sector at the beginning of 2021, turned into a sunset sector in just a couple of months. The so-called “new three mountains” for Chinese consumers are housing, medi-care and education. According to China Statistic Bureau, spending on medicine and healthcare comprised 2.7% of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) in 1993 and 8.1% in 2019. The ratio increased by 2 times in 26 years. Similarly, housing comprised 6.6% of PCE in 1993 and 24.2% in 2019. Although per capita GDP is above US$ 11000 in 2020, Chinese consumers still spent 27.6% of PCE on food. The food and housing combined together took 51.8% of PCE. There is no specific data about education and training. But from personal experience expenditure on this should not be low. If we assume education and training expenditure takes 10% of PCE, Chinese consumers spend about 80% of PCE on basic living and development needs. In comparison,the US consumers only spend 5.75% on food and housing and 16.5% on healthcare.Even if education expenditure is as high as healthcare, the US consumers would spend close to 40% on basic living and development needs, which is much less than Chinese consumers. Hence,it is understandable that policy target the "new three mountains".

There is no large international money exiting from HK. From April 2020 toearly Feb. 2021 HK to US dollar exchange rate hit strong exchange side. HK Monetary Authority had to sell HK dollar and buy the US dollar during this period. But from the end of Feb. 2021 to April 2021, the HK dollar depreciated against the US dollar. After it reached HK$ 7.785, the lowest point in two months, it began to appreciate again. Recently the Sino-US tensions rose around HK. HK market performed poorly in 2019 and 2020 when Sino-US relationship went low. Yet this situation might not last long as China and US will hold talks this week.

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負任何責任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹慎。